Groningen 0-0 PEC Zwolle – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs PEC Zwolle fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 15 as Groningen welcome PEC Zwolle to Euroborg. Kick-off is set for Sunday 8 December 2024 at 11:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Groningen — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Eredivisie outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Groningen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Groningen at Euroborg this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Euroborg. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Groningen are significantly better at Euroborg than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, PEC Zwolle stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for PEC Zwolle, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PEC Zwolle's form when playing away from home: 0W 5D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour PEC Zwolle — 0.50 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.20 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Groningen, 0 for PEC Zwolle and 2 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Feb 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Groningen trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
PEC Zwolle trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Groningen 46% versus PEC Zwolle 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 56% | PEC Zwolle 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 1.46 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 0.816 / defence 0.798 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.791 / defence 1.046. League average goals — home 1.710 / away 1.282. Groningen's defence rating of 0.798 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 14 Groningen games / 48 PEC Zwolle games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 52% | Draw 27% | PEC Zwolle 21%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.92 | Draw 3.70 | PEC Zwolle 4.76. Groningen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form PEC Zwolle (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Groningen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.27 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 30% | PEC Zwolle 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs PEC Zwolle | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 8 Dec 2024, 11:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 52% | Draw 27% | PEC Zwolle 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 43% | xG Groningen 1.46 / PEC Zwolle 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 0.816 / def 0.798 | PEC Zwolle attack 0.791 / def 1.046 | league avg home 1.710 / away 1.282 • Poisson stance: Groningen (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
0.81
PEC Zwolle xG
43%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kick off?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle kicked off at 11:15 on Sunday 8 December 2024 at Euroborg.
What was the final score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Groningen 0 - 0 PEC Zwolle.
Where is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle part of?
Groningen vs PEC Zwolle is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 52% chance of winning, PEC Zwolle a 21% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Groningen and PEC Zwolle will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs PEC Zwolle have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
Record (2 meetings): Groningen 0W | Draws 2 | PEC Zwolle 0W.
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in?
Groningen (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. PEC Zwolle (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Groningen's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against PEC Zwolle's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.46. The same calculation in reverse, PEC Zwolle's attack versus Groningen's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 14/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.8%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
52%
1.91
27%
3.75
21%
4.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Groningen xG
Total xG
2.27
0.81
PEC Zwolle xG
1.91
52%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
4.80
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
23%
4.28
5%
20.66
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 8.4 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.2 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.9 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.4 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Groningen and PEC Zwolle expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Groningen and 0.81 for PEC Zwolle, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs PEC Zwolle?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Groningen's recent record stands at 24W 11D 13L from 48 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Groningen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
PEC Zwolle, meanwhile, have gone 13W 12D 23L across 48 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. The sample for PEC Zwolle is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Groningen by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PEC Zwolle heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Groningen have managed 14W 6D 4L from 24 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
PEC Zwolle's away record stands at 4W 9D 11L across 24 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Groningen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Groningen are averaging 1.65 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; PEC Zwolle are on 1.25 scored and 1.90 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: PEC Zwolle in 62%.
Defensively: Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 48 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Blended
PEC Zwolle
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and PEC Zwolle in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 24W 11D 13L in their last 48 games (1.73 PPG), while PEC Zwolle have gone 13W 12D 23L in their last 48 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or PEC Zwolle away?
Groningen's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 2.00 PPG; PEC Zwolle away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Groningen or PEC Zwolle been keeping clean sheets recently?
Groningen have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, PEC Zwolle in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. The two were last together as recently as 18 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2026, when Groningen won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Groningen's record when hosting PEC Zwolle specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Groningen
5
Draws
1
PEC Zwolle
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and PEC Zwolle?
From 7 meetings on record, Groningen have won 1, PEC Zwolle have won 1, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and PEC Zwolle last play each other?
They last met on 18 September 2026, when Groningen 3-0 PEC Zwolle.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
PEC Zwolle are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 38%, PEC Zwolle 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Groningen) and 58% (PEC Zwolle). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Groningen have failed to score in 29% of games; PEC Zwolle in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / PEC Zwolle away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play PEC Zwolle?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Groningen's recent matches and 62% of PEC Zwolle's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Groningen vs PEC Zwolle usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Groningen's matches and 58% of PEC Zwolle's.
Do Groningen and PEC Zwolle tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, PEC Zwolle in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Groningen's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Euroborg, Regular Season - 15, as Groningen and PEC Zwolle drew 0-0 in the Eredivisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Groningen 1.46 xG and PEC Zwolle 0.81 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Groningen fell 1.5 short of their projected output. PEC Zwolle landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Groningen attack 0.82 / defence 0.80 against PEC Zwolle attack 0.79 / defence 1.05, drawn from 14/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Groningen 52% | Draw 27% | PEC Zwolle 21%, with Groningen to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 66% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Groningen 56%, PEC Zwolle 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Groningen's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
PEC Zwolle's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Groningen arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.06. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Groningen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. PEC Zwolle (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.25 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.