Groningen vs Cambuur – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Groningen at 57%, yet other data sources diverge — this Groningen vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Euroborg plays host to Groningen versus Cambuur in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Groningen have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L W W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Groningen have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Euroborg, Groningen have gone 4W 1D 5L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur's overall Eredivisie record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.70 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Cambuur have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cambuur's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Groningen's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cambuur's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Groningen register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Cambuur in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Groningen 3W, Cambuur 3W, 0D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 3–0 with Groningen winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Groningen half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
Cambuur half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Groningen 59% and Cambuur 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Groningen 59% | Cambuur 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Groningen 2.28 xG and Cambuur 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Groningen attack 1.044 / defence 0.936 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / defence 1.302. League average goals — home 1.674 / away 1.880. Cambuur bring a strong defensive rating of 1.302 — this is suppressing Groningen's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 38 Groningen games / 4 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Groningen 57% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 22%. Fair-value odds: Groningen 1.75 | Draw 4.76 | Cambuur 4.55. The model has a clear lean to Groningen (57%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 71% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.65. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 71% — a total xG of 3.65 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.37) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Groningen as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.65 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 71% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 67% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Groningen 80% | Cambuur 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Groningen vs Cambuur | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Euroborg • Kick-off: Sunday 16 May 2027, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Groningen 57% | Draw 21% | Cambuur 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 71% | BTTS 67% | xG Groningen 2.28 / Cambuur 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Groningen attack 1.044 / def 0.936 | Cambuur attack 0.780 / def 1.302 | league avg home 1.674 / away 1.880 • Poisson stance: Groningen (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Groningen xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Cambuur xG
67%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
71%
Over 2.5
50%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Groningen vs Cambuur kick off?
Groningen vs Cambuur is scheduled to kick off at 12:30 on Sunday 16 May 2027 at Euroborg.
Where is Groningen vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at Euroborg.
What competition is Groningen vs Cambuur part of?
Groningen vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Groningen a 57% chance of winning, Cambuur a 22% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Groningen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Groningen and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Groningen vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 71%.
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Cambuur?
Record (6 meetings): Groningen 3W | Draws 0 | Cambuur 3W.
What form are Groningen and Cambuur in?
Groningen (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Cambuur (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.70 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Groningen's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Cambuur's defensive record (1.30x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.28. Flip it around — Cambuur's attack (0.78x) against Groningen's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 38/4 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 9.3%. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Groningen Win
57%
1.74
21%
4.84
22%
4.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
3 – 1
7.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Groningen xG
Total xG
3.65
1.37
Cambuur xG
1.74
57%
Home win
4.84
21%
Draw
4.55
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
71%
Over 2.5
1.41
29%
Under 2.5
3.45
50%
Over 3.5
2.00
50%
Under 3.5
2.00
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.48
33%
BTTS No
3.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.95
10%
9.75
Win to Nil
15%
6.88
2%
44.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 8.1 | 5.6 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 9.3 | 6.4 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 7.0 | 4.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.9 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Groningen vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Groningen and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Groningen and 1.37 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Groningen vs Cambuur?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, Groningen have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 16W 6D 17L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Groningen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Cambuur's form line: 21W 9D 9L from 39 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-L-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for Cambuur, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.47 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Groningen.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Groningen have posted 1.39 PPG from 18 outings (7W 4D 7L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 9W 4D 5L from 18 away games — 1.72 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Groningen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.46 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.97 scored and 1.62 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cambuur in 72%.
Last 39 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Groningen
Early Season
Cambuur
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Groningen and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Groningen have gone 16W 6D 17L in their last 39 games (1.38 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 21W 9D 9L in their last 39 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Groningen at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Groningen at home: 1.39 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eredivisie, Eerste Divisie all feature in the head-to-head log. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Groningen won 3-0 on 20 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Groningen have gone 1W 0D 2L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Cambuur — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Groningen
0
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Groningen and Cambuur?
From 6 meetings on record, Groningen have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Groningen and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2024, when Groningen 3-0 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Groningen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Groningen 56%, Cambuur 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Groningen and 67% for Cambuur. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 28% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Groningen keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Groningen home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Groningen play Cambuur?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Groningen's games and 72% of Cambuur's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Groningen vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Groningen's matches and 67% of Cambuur's.
Do Groningen and Cambuur tend to score early?
Groningen have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.