Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Feyenoord (75%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Feyenoord face Waalwijk.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Feijenoord plays host to Feyenoord versus Waalwijk in Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Feyenoord have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Eredivisie outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 2.80 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Feyenoord's home record at Stadion Feijenoord: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie appearances (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Feijenoord this season.
Waalwijk's overall Eredivisie record this term: 1W 2D 7L from 10 games (0.50 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Waalwijk away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Feyenoord. A 2.00 PPG lead over Waalwijk (2.50 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Feyenoord register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Waalwijk in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record favours Feyenoord, who have won 6 of the last 7 meetings against Waalwijk — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.1 goals per game across 7 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2024, ended 3–2 with Feyenoord winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Feyenoord and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Feyenoord half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Waalwijk half-time and goal-timing data (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feyenoord 58% versus Waalwijk 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feyenoord 67% | Waalwijk 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feyenoord 3.10 xG and Waalwijk 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feyenoord attack 1.361 / defence 0.933 | Waalwijk attack 0.945 / defence 1.422. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 1.342. Feyenoord carry an above-average attack strength of 1.361 — their λ of 3.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Waalwijk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.422 — this is suppressing Feyenoord's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Feyenoord games / 66 Waalwijk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Feyenoord 75% | Draw 14% | Waalwijk 11%. Fair-value odds: Feyenoord 1.33 | Draw 7.14 | Waalwijk 9.09. The model has a clear lean to Feyenoord (75%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 4.29. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.29 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (3.10 / 1.18) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Feyenoord at 75% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.
The Poisson model projects 4.29 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 80% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.1 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 67% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Feyenoord 70% | Waalwijk 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feyenoord vs Waalwijk | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Stadion Feijenoord • Kick-off: Wednesday 14 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feyenoord 75% | Draw 14% | Waalwijk 11% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% | BTTS 67% | xG Feyenoord 3.10 / Waalwijk 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Feyenoord attack 1.361 / def 0.933 | Waalwijk attack 0.945 / def 1.422 | league avg home 1.603 / away 1.342 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (75%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.10
Feyenoord xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Waalwijk xG
67%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kick off?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk kicked off at 19:00 on Wednesday 14 May 2025 at Stadion Feijenoord.
What was the final score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Feyenoord 2 - 0 Waalwijk.
Where is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Feijenoord.
What competition is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk part of?
Feyenoord vs Waalwijk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our statistical model gives Feyenoord a 75% chance of winning, Waalwijk a 11% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both Feyenoord and Waalwijk will score (BTTS).
Will Feyenoord vs Waalwijk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%.
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Record (7 meetings): Feyenoord 6W | Draws 1 | Waalwijk 0W.
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in?
Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Waalwijk (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Feyenoord's attack at 1.36x the league average against Waalwijk's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 3.10 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Waalwijk's attack (0.94x) against Feyenoord's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.18.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 3-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (7.8%), 3-0 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
75%
1.33
14%
6.92
11%
9.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
3 – 0
6.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.10
Feyenoord xG
Total xG
4.29
1.18
Waalwijk xG
1.33
75%
Home win
6.92
14%
Draw
9.42
11%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
43%
Over 4.5
2.33
57%
Under 4.5
1.75
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
31%
3.26
4%
22.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.36
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 4.3 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 5.3 | 6.3 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 3.3 | 3.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Our Poisson model rates 3-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Feyenoord and Waalwijk expected to score?
The model projects 3.10 expected goals for Feyenoord and 1.18 for Waalwijk, a combined total of 4.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Feyenoord vs Waalwijk?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 75%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 66 outings, Feyenoord have picked up 2.26 PPG on a 45W 14D 7L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Waalwijk's form line: 12W 15D 39L from 66 games, 0.77 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-W.
Put side by side, Feyenoord are the form team by 1.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waalwijk.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Feyenoord have posted 2.27 PPG from 33 outings (23W 6D 4L).
On the road, Waalwijk have gone 4W 6D 23L from 33 away games — 0.55 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Feyenoord come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Feyenoord are averaging 2.52 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Waalwijk are on 1.17 scored and 1.89 conceded.
Defensively: Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 66 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feyenoord
Current Season
Waalwijk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Feyenoord and Waalwijk in coming into this match?
Feyenoord have gone 45W 14D 7L in their last 66 games (2.26 PPG), while Waalwijk have gone 12W 15D 39L in their last 66 (0.77 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feyenoord at home or Waalwijk away?
Feyenoord's home record (2.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feyenoord at home: 2.27 PPG; Waalwijk away: 0.55 PPG.
Have Feyenoord or Waalwijk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Feyenoord have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Waalwijk in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Feyenoord go into this on the back of 7 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Feyenoord won 5-1 on 9 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Feyenoord have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Waalwijk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Feyenoord
1
Draws
0
Waalwijk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
From 8 meetings on record, Feyenoord have won 7, Waalwijk have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Feyenoord and Waalwijk last play each other?
They last met on 14 May 2025, when Feyenoord 2-0 Waalwijk.
Who has won more matches between Feyenoord and Waalwijk?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time.
Waalwijk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feyenoord 52%, Waalwijk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 70% for Feyenoord and 61% for Waalwijk. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feyenoord keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Waalwijk in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feyenoord home games / Waalwijk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Feyenoord play Waalwijk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Feyenoord's games and 61% of Waalwijk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Feyenoord vs Waalwijk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 70% of Feyenoord's matches and 61% of Waalwijk's.
Do Feyenoord and Waalwijk tend to score early?
Feyenoord have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Waalwijk in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Feyenoord cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waalwijk.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Waalwijk 2-0 at Stadion Feijenoord, Regular Season - 33, in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feyenoord 3.10 xG and Waalwijk 1.18 xG, a combined 4.29. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Feyenoord fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Waalwijk landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feyenoord attack 1.36 / defence 0.93 against Waalwijk attack 0.94 / defence 1.42, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feyenoord 75% | Draw 14% | Waalwijk 11%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 75%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feyenoord 67%, Waalwijk 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feyenoord's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Waalwijk's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Feyenoord arrived the stronger side — 2.26 PPG against 0.77. Form held, and they took the win. Feyenoord (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.85 average — tighter than their form line. Waalwijk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.