FC Volendam 2-2 AZ Alkmaar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar at 42% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as FC Volendam welcome AZ Alkmaar to Kras Stadion. Kick-off is set for Sunday 17 August 2025 at 15:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Volendam stand at 7W 1D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. FC Volendam have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Kras Stadion, FC Volendam have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.80 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
AZ Alkmaar — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eredivisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W D W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. AZ Alkmaar have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AZ Alkmaar's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eredivisie this season (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: FC Volendam 2.20 PPG, AZ Alkmaar 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. FC Volendam register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, AZ Alkmaar in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AZ Alkmaar have the better historical record — 3 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for FC Volendam.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 17 Mar 2024, ended 0–4 with AZ Alkmaar winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AZ Alkmaar have won 3 of 4 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Profile
FC Volendam in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 51%.
AZ Alkmaar in-play tendencies (37 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC Volendam 65% and AZ Alkmaar 60% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (FC Volendam 76% | AZ Alkmaar 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Volendam 1.39 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Volendam attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.129 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.741 / away 1.253. Data: 1 FC Volendam games / 35 AZ Alkmaar games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: FC Volendam 31% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Volendam 3.23 | Draw 3.70 | AZ Alkmaar 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.39 / 1.63) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AZ Alkmaar as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AZ Alkmaar offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.02 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 62% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: FC Volendam 70% | AZ Alkmaar 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Kras Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Aug 2025, 15:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Volendam 31% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 62% | xG FC Volendam 1.39 / AZ Alkmaar 1.63 • Poisson strength factors: FC Volendam attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | AZ Alkmaar attack 1.129 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.741 / away 1.253 • Poisson stance: AZ Alkmaar (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Expected Goals
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar kick off?
FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar kicked off at 15:45 on Sunday 17 August 2025 at Kras Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
FC Volendam 2 - 2 AZ Alkmaar.
Where is FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar being played?
The match is being played at Kras Stadion.
What competition is FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar part of?
FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our statistical model gives FC Volendam a 31% chance of winning, AZ Alkmaar a 42% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AZ Alkmaar the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar will score (BTTS).
Will FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar?
Record (4 meetings): FC Volendam 0W | Draws 1 | AZ Alkmaar 3W.
What form are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar in?
FC Volendam (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. AZ Alkmaar (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from FC Volendam's attack rating (0.86) and AZ Alkmaar's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.39 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AZ Alkmaar's attack versus FC Volendam's defence, projects 1.63 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
AZ Alkmaar Win
31%
3.18
27%
3.75
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
FC Volendam xG
Total xG
3.02
1.63
AZ Alkmaar xG
3.18
31%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.61
Clean Sheet
20%
5.09
25%
4.01
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
10%
9.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.8 | 11.1 | 9.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.7 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for FC Volendam and 1.63 for AZ Alkmaar, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 37 outings, FC Volendam have picked up 2.24 PPG on a 26W 5D 6L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for FC Volendam, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AZ Alkmaar's form line: 19W 9D 9L from 37 games, 1.78 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-W. It's still early in the season for AZ Alkmaar, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, FC Volendam are the form team by 0.46 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against AZ Alkmaar.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, FC Volendam have posted 2.47 PPG from 17 outings (14W 0D 3L).
On the road, AZ Alkmaar have gone 8W 5D 4L from 17 away games — 1.71 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Volendam come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
FC Volendam are averaging 2.30 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; AZ Alkmaar are on 1.86 scored and 1.11 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: FC Volendam have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Volendam
Early Season
AZ Alkmaar
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar in coming into this match?
FC Volendam have gone 26W 5D 6L in their last 37 games (2.24 PPG), while AZ Alkmaar have gone 19W 9D 9L in their last 37 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Volendam at home or AZ Alkmaar away?
FC Volendam's home record (2.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Volendam at home: 2.47 PPG; AZ Alkmaar away: 1.71 PPG.
Have FC Volendam or AZ Alkmaar been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC Volendam have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, AZ Alkmaar in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 10 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2024, when AZ Alkmaar won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Volendam's record when hosting AZ Alkmaar specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
FC Volendam
2
Draws
4
AZ Alkmaar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar?
From 6 meetings on record, FC Volendam have won 0, AZ Alkmaar have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar last play each other?
They last met on 10 January 2026, when AZ Alkmaar 1-0 FC Volendam.
Who has won more matches between FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar?
AZ Alkmaar have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
FC Volendam are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
AZ Alkmaar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Volendam 59%, AZ Alkmaar 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for FC Volendam and 65% for AZ Alkmaar. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 59% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Volendam keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; AZ Alkmaar in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Volendam home games / AZ Alkmaar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Volendam play AZ Alkmaar?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of FC Volendam's games and 53% of AZ Alkmaar's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Volendam vs AZ Alkmaar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of FC Volendam's matches and 65% of AZ Alkmaar's.
Do FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar tend to score early?
FC Volendam have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, AZ Alkmaar in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Kras Stadion, Regular Season - 2, as FC Volendam and AZ Alkmaar drew 2-2 in the Eredivisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Volendam 1.39 xG and AZ Alkmaar 1.63 xG, a combined 3.02. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Volendam attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against AZ Alkmaar attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it FC Volendam 31% | Draw 27% | AZ Alkmaar 42%, with AZ Alkmaar to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Volendam 76%, AZ Alkmaar 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Volendam's trading profile (37 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
AZ Alkmaar's trading profile (37 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Volendam arrived the stronger side — 2.24 PPG against 1.78. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. FC Volendam (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. AZ Alkmaar (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.