Excelsior 1-2 Feyenoord – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Feyenoord at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Excelsior vs Feyenoord encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eredivisie clash, Regular Season - 2 as Excelsior welcome Feyenoord to Stadion Woudestein. Kick-off is set for Saturday 16 August 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eredivisie games this season, Excelsior have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Excelsior have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Woudestein, Excelsior have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Woudestein.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Feyenoord stand at 8W 0D 2L from 10 Eredivisie matches — 2.40 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Feyenoord have played only a handful of Eredivisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Feyenoord away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Their away PPG of 1.70 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Excelsior 2.40 PPG, Feyenoord 2.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Feyenoord have the better historical record — 4 wins from 4 previous contests against 0 for Excelsior.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 0–4 with Feyenoord winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Feyenoord have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.5 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Feyenoord in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 51% versus Feyenoord 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 57% | Feyenoord 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 1.35 xG and Feyenoord 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Feyenoord attack 1.173 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.783 / away 1.169. Data: 1 Excelsior games / 35 Feyenoord games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Excelsior 31% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 41%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 3.23 | Draw 3.57 | Feyenoord 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.93. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.93 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.35 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feyenoord are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feyenoord offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.93 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 56% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.5 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Excelsior 40% | Feyenoord 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (1 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Feyenoord | Competition: Eredivisie, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Stadion Woudestein • Kick-off: Saturday 16 Aug 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 31% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 60% | xG Excelsior 1.35 / Feyenoord 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Feyenoord attack 1.173 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.783 / away 1.169 • Poisson stance: Feyenoord (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
1.58
Feyenoord xG
60%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Feyenoord kick off?
Excelsior vs Feyenoord kicked off at 17:45 on Saturday 16 August 2025 at Stadion Woudestein.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Excelsior 1 - 2 Feyenoord.
Where is Excelsior vs Feyenoord being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Woudestein.
What competition is Excelsior vs Feyenoord part of?
Excelsior vs Feyenoord is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Eredivisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 31% chance of winning, Feyenoord a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Feyenoord the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Excelsior and Feyenoord will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Feyenoord have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
Record (4 meetings): Excelsior 0W | Draws 0 | Feyenoord 4W.
What form are Excelsior and Feyenoord in?
Excelsior (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Feyenoord (all comps): 8W-0D-2L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Excelsior's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Feyenoord's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.35. The same calculation in reverse, Feyenoord's attack versus Excelsior's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (1/35 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Feyenoord Win
31%
3.21
28%
3.61
41%
2.43
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
0 – 1
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.93
1.58
Feyenoord xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.43
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
21%
4.84
26%
3.86
Win to Nil
6%
15.52
11%
9.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.4 | 9.0 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 6.1 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Feyenoord expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Excelsior and 1.58 for Feyenoord, a combined total of 2.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Feyenoord?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Excelsior come into this having played 35 games, going 20W 7D 8L for 1.91 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-L-L. It's still early in the season for Excelsior, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Feyenoord sit at 2.03 PPG from 35 outings (21W 8D 6L), a run that reads W-L-W-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Feyenoord, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Excelsior on 1.91 PPG, Feyenoord on 2.03. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Excelsior's home form reads 12W 3D 2L across 17 games on their own ground, a 2.29 PPG return.
Away from home, Feyenoord have taken 1.88 points per game from 17 outings (9W 5D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Excelsior are averaging 1.83 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Feyenoord are on 2.23 scored and 1.09 conceded. Both sides have been scoring freely, which tends to support the goals markets running hot in this fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Feyenoord in 60%.
Defensively: Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 35 Results — Eredivisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Early Season
Feyenoord
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Feyenoord in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 20W 7D 8L in their last 35 games (1.91 PPG), while Feyenoord have gone 21W 8D 6L in their last 35 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Feyenoord away?
Excelsior's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 2.29 PPG; Feyenoord away: 1.88 PPG.
Have Excelsior or Feyenoord been keeping clean sheets recently?
Excelsior have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Feyenoord in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Excelsior and Feyenoord runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Eredivisie. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Feyenoord have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Nov 2022, when Feyenoord won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Excelsior's record when hosting Feyenoord specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Excelsior
0
Draws
6
Feyenoord
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
From 6 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 0, Feyenoord have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Feyenoord last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Feyenoord 2-1 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Feyenoord?
Feyenoord have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Feyenoord are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 35%, Feyenoord 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Excelsior) and 53% (Feyenoord).
On the defensive side: Excelsior keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Feyenoord away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Feyenoord?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Excelsior's recent matches and 65% of Feyenoord's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Excelsior vs Feyenoord usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Excelsior's recent games and 53% of Feyenoord's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Excelsior and Feyenoord tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Feyenoord in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Feyenoord edge out Excelsior 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feyenoord beat Excelsior 1-2 at Stadion Woudestein, Regular Season - 2, in the Eredivisie. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 1.35 xG and Feyenoord 1.58 xG, a combined 2.93. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Feyenoord attack 1.17 / defence 0.88, drawn from 1/35 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 31% | Draw 28% | Feyenoord 41%, with Feyenoord to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 57%, Feyenoord 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Feyenoord's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Excelsior 1.91 PPG, Feyenoord 2.03 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feyenoord win broke the near-deadlock. Excelsior (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.