Vitesse vs Roda – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vitesse at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitesse vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Vitesse and Roda meet at GelreDome in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 February 2027 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Vitesse's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vitesse, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at GelreDome, Vitesse have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Roda (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Roda away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.60 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 5 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Vitesse, 2 for Roda and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Sep 2026, ended 0–1 with Roda winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Vitesse half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
Roda half-time and goal-timing data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vitesse 61% and Roda 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vitesse 65% | Roda 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitesse 1.29 xG and Roda 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitesse attack 0.975 / defence 1.050 | Roda attack 0.629 / defence 0.716. League average goals — home 1.856 / away 1.461. Roda's defence strength of 0.716 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 49 Vitesse games / 48 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitesse 44% | Draw 28% | Roda 28%. Fair-value odds: Vitesse 2.27 | Draw 3.57 | Roda 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vitesse at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Vitesse if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Vitesse 70% | Roda 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitesse vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: GelreDome • Kick-off: Friday 19 Feb 2027, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitesse 44% | Draw 28% | Roda 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Vitesse 1.29 / Roda 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Vitesse attack 0.975 / def 1.050 | Roda attack 0.629 / def 0.716 | league avg home 1.856 / away 1.461 • Poisson stance: Vitesse (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Vitesse xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Roda xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitesse vs Roda kick off?
Vitesse vs Roda is scheduled to kick off at 19:00 on Friday 19 February 2027 at GelreDome.
Where is Vitesse vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at GelreDome.
What competition is Vitesse vs Roda part of?
Vitesse vs Roda is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Vitesse vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives Vitesse a 44% chance of winning, Roda a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vitesse the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitesse vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Vitesse and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will Vitesse vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Roda?
Record (5 meetings): Vitesse 2W | Draws 1 | Roda 2W.
What form are Vitesse and Roda in?
Vitesse (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-L-W. Roda (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Vitesse's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Roda's defensive record (0.72x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. Flip it around — Roda's attack (0.63x) against Vitesse's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 49/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.1%), 1-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vitesse Win
44%
2.27
28%
3.55
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
0 – 0
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Vitesse xG
Total xG
2.26
0.96
Roda xG
2.27
44%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
17%
5.95
8%
13.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 10.1 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.5 | 13.0 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitesse vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Vitesse and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Vitesse and 0.96 for Roda, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitesse vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Vitesse come into this having played 49 games, going 20W 13D 16L for 1.49 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-W. The sample for Vitesse is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Roda sit at 1.43 PPG from 49 outings (17W 19D 13L), a run that reads W-D-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.49 PPG for Vitesse against 1.43 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Vitesse's home form reads 9W 8D 7L across 24 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Roda have taken 1.62 points per game from 24 outings (10W 9D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Vitesse are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.39 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vitesse have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 49 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitesse
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vitesse and Roda in coming into this match?
Vitesse have gone 20W 13D 16L in their last 49 games (1.49 PPG), while Roda have gone 17W 19D 13L in their last 49 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vitesse at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vitesse at home: 1.46 PPG; Roda away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. The two were last together as recently as 12 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 26 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Vitesse have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Vitesse
1
Draws
2
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitesse and Roda?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitesse have won 2, Roda have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Vitesse and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 12 September 2026, when Roda 1-0 Vitesse.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Vitesse are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 75% for Vitesse, 62% for Roda — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Vitesse and 54% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitesse home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vitesse play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Vitesse's games and 62% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vitesse vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Vitesse's matches and 54% of Roda's.
Do Vitesse and Roda tend to score early?
Vitesse have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Roda in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.