Telstar 0-2 Dordrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dordrecht at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Telstar vs Dordrecht encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
711 Stadion plays host to Telstar versus Dordrecht in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off: Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Telstar have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L W L D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Telstar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Telstar have posted 4W 1D 5L at 711 Stadion — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dordrecht (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Dordrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dordrecht's away record: 2W 5D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Dordrecht are 0.60 PPG clear of Telstar in recent Eerste Divisie fixtures (1.60 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Telstar register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Dordrecht in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: Telstar 2W, Dordrecht 0W, 2D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Telstar goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (56 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Telstar 48% versus Dordrecht 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Telstar 48% | Dordrecht 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Telstar 1.54 xG and Dordrecht 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Telstar attack 0.917 / defence 1.285 | Dordrecht attack 0.969 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. Data: 56 Telstar games / 56 Dordrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Telstar 34% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41%. Fair-value odds: Telstar 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Dordrecht 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.54 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
Telstar dominate the H2H record, yet Dordrecht are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dordrecht if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.24 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 63% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.5 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Telstar 70% | Dordrecht 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Telstar vs Dordrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: 711 Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Telstar 34% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 66% | xG Telstar 1.54 / Dordrecht 1.70 • Poisson strength factors: Telstar attack 0.917 / def 1.285 | Dordrecht attack 0.969 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Telstar xG
Expected Goals
1.70
Dordrecht xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Telstar vs Dordrecht kick off?
Telstar vs Dordrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at 711 Stadion.
What was the final score in Telstar vs Dordrecht?
Telstar 0 - 2 Dordrecht.
Where is Telstar vs Dordrecht being played?
The match is being played at 711 Stadion.
What competition is Telstar vs Dordrecht part of?
Telstar vs Dordrecht is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Telstar vs Dordrecht?
Our statistical model gives Telstar a 34% chance of winning, Dordrecht a 41% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Telstar vs Dordrecht?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Telstar and Dordrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Telstar vs Dordrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Dordrecht?
Record (4 meetings): Telstar 2W | Draws 2 | Dordrecht 0W.
What form are Telstar and Dordrecht in?
Telstar (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-D-L. Dordrecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Telstar's attack rating (0.92) and Dordrecht's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Dordrecht's attack (0.97x) against Telstar's defence (1.28x) — and the away total comes out at 1.70.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
34%
2.98
26%
3.89
41%
2.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Telstar xG
Total xG
3.24
1.70
Dordrecht xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.46
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.53
34%
BTTS No
2.90
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
6%
16.35
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.7 | 5.7 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.9 | 6.7 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Telstar vs Dordrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Telstar and Dordrecht expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Telstar and 1.70 for Dordrecht, a combined total of 3.24.
How confident is the prediction model for Telstar vs Dordrecht?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Telstar's recent record stands at 18W 13D 25L from 56 games, a 1.20 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-L in the last five. The sample for Telstar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Dordrecht, meanwhile, have gone 15W 17D 24L across 56 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Dordrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.20 PPG for Telstar against 1.11 for Dordrecht. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Telstar have managed 11W 5D 11L from 27 games — 1.41 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Dordrecht's away record stands at 5W 8D 14L across 27 trips, a 0.85 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Telstar come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Telstar are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Dordrecht are on 1.39 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Telstar
Blended
Dordrecht
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Telstar and Dordrecht in coming into this match?
Telstar have gone 18W 13D 25L in their last 56 games (1.20 PPG), while Dordrecht have gone 15W 17D 24L in their last 56 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Telstar at home or Dordrecht away?
Telstar's home record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Telstar at home: 1.41 PPG; Dordrecht away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Telstar won 5-0 on 7 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Telstar have gone 2W 1D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dordrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Telstar
2
Draws
3
Dordrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Telstar and Dordrecht?
From 8 meetings on record, Telstar have won 3, Dordrecht have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Telstar and Dordrecht last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2025, when Telstar 5-0 Dordrecht.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Telstar see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Telstar 52%, Dordrecht 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Telstar) and 52% (Dordrecht).
On the defensive side: Telstar have failed to score in 30% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Telstar home games / Dordrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Telstar play Dordrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Telstar's games and 67% of Dordrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Telstar vs Dordrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Telstar's recent games and 52% of Dordrecht's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Telstar and Dordrecht tend to score early?
Telstar have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Dordrecht in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Telstar.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat Telstar 0-2 at 711 Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Telstar 1.54 xG and Dordrecht 1.70 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Telstar fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Telstar attack 0.92 / defence 1.28 against Dordrecht attack 0.97 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Telstar 34% | Draw 26% | Dordrecht 41%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Telstar 48%, Dordrecht 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Telstar's trading profile (56 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dordrecht's trading profile (56 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Telstar 1.20 PPG, Dordrecht 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Dordrecht win broke the near-deadlock. Telstar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.93 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.