Den Bosch 0-4 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates De Graafschap at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Den Bosch vs De Graafschap encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Den Bosch and De Graafschap meet at Stadion De Vliert in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. This fixture gets under way on Friday 15 December 2023 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Den Bosch (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's home record at Stadion De Vliert: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Den Bosch are significantly better at Stadion De Vliert than their overall form suggests.
De Graafschap's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 5W 0D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
De Graafschap arrive in superior form — a 1.30 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 0.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Den Bosch have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, De Graafschap in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Den Bosch, 1 for De Graafschap and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2023, ended 0–3 with De Graafschap winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Den Bosch half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 34% of games.
De Graafschap half-time and goal-timing data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 55% versus De Graafschap 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 66% | De Graafschap 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.48 xG and De Graafschap 1.77 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 0.880 / defence 1.404 | De Graafschap attack 0.922 / defence 1.071. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.369. Data: 56 Den Bosch games / 56 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 31% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 43%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 3.23 | Draw 4.00 | De Graafschap 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.25. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.25 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.77) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, De Graafschap are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on De Graafschap if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.25 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 80% | De Graafschap 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadion De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 15 Dec 2023, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 31% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 65% | xG Den Bosch 1.48 / De Graafschap 1.77 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 0.880 / def 1.404 | De Graafschap attack 0.922 / def 1.071 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.77
De Graafschap xG
65%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kick off?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 15 December 2023 at Stadion De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Den Bosch 0 - 4 De Graafschap.
Where is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Stadion De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap part of?
Den Bosch vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 31% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 43% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Den Bosch and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
Record (4 meetings): Den Bosch 2W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 1W.
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. De Graafschap (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Den Bosch's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.48. Flip it around — De Graafschap's attack (0.92x) against Den Bosch's defence (1.40x) — and the away total comes out at 1.77.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.0%), 2-1 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
31%
3.21
25%
3.92
43%
2.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.0%
Away win
2 – 1
7.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.25
1.77
De Graafschap xG
3.21
31%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.31
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.89
Clean Sheet
17%
5.88
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
5%
18.88
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.9 | 6.8 | 6.1 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 10.1 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.5 | 6.7 | 3.9 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.77 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 56 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 0.84 PPG on a 13W 8D 35L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 24W 10D 22L from 56 games, 1.46 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.14 PPG from 28 outings (9W 5D 14L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 10W 5D 13L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Den Bosch are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.54 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 13W 8D 35L in their last 56 games (0.84 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 24W 10D 22L in their last 56 (1.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.14 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 26 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: De Graafschap won 0-4 on 15 Dec 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Den Bosch have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against De Graafschap — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Den Bosch
3
Draws
5
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 2, De Graafschap have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 26 January 2026, when De Graafschap 1-1 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between Den Bosch and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 68% for Den Bosch, 64% for De Graafschap — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Den Bosch and 71% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Den Bosch's games and 64% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Den Bosch vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Den Bosch's matches and 71% of De Graafschap's.
Do Den Bosch and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant De Graafschap run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Den Bosch.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Den Bosch 0-4 at Stadion De Vliert, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.48 xG and De Graafschap 1.77 xG, a combined 3.25. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Den Bosch fell 1.5 short of their projected output. De Graafschap outscored their 1.77 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 0.88 / defence 1.40 against De Graafschap attack 0.92 / defence 1.07, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 31% | Draw 25% | De Graafschap 43%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 66%, De Graafschap 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
De Graafschap's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.61 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.75 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.