Jong Utrecht 2-3 De Graafschap – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates De Graafschap at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong Utrecht host De Graafschap at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 8 December 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong Utrecht — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jong Utrecht, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Jong Utrecht have gone 5W 3D 2L this season (10 games, 1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, De Graafschap stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for De Graafschap, so this record blends games from this season and last.
De Graafschap's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Jong Utrecht 1.60 PPG, De Graafschap 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jong Utrecht register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, De Graafschap in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Jong Utrecht have won 1, De Graafschap 2, with 5 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jong Utrecht in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
De Graafschap in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong Utrecht 57% and De Graafschap 64% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong Utrecht 57% | De Graafschap 61%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Utrecht 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Utrecht attack 0.998 / defence 1.027 | De Graafschap attack 1.218 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.707 / away 1.438. De Graafschap have an above-average attack strength of 1.218 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 56 Jong Utrecht games / 56 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 33% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 44%. Fair-value odds: Jong Utrecht 3.03 | Draw 4.35 | De Graafschap 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.35. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.35 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.55 / 1.80) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates De Graafschap as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on De Graafschap offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.35 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 65% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jong Utrecht 60% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch • Kick-off: Monday 8 Dec 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Utrecht 33% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Jong Utrecht 1.55 / De Graafschap 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Utrecht attack 0.998 / def 1.027 | De Graafschap attack 1.218 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.707 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: De Graafschap (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Jong Utrecht xG
Expected Goals
1.80
De Graafschap xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kick off?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 8 December 2025 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What was the final score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Jong Utrecht 2 - 3 De Graafschap.
Where is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch.
What competition is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap part of?
Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Jong Utrecht a 33% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 44% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making De Graafschap the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
Record (8 meetings): Jong Utrecht 1W | Draws 5 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in?
Jong Utrecht (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. De Graafschap (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong Utrecht's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against De Graafschap's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Jong Utrecht's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.1%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
De Graafschap Win
33%
3.02
23%
4.28
44%
2.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Jong Utrecht xG
Total xG
3.35
1.80
De Graafschap xG
3.02
33%
Home win
4.28
23%
Draw
2.30
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.94
Clean Sheet
17%
6.04
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
5%
18.23
9%
10.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.3 | 5.7 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 5.5 | 9.8 | 8.8 | 5.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 7.6 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Jong Utrecht and 1.80 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 3.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 56 outings, Jong Utrecht have picked up 0.82 PPG on a 10W 16D 30L record — D-L-D-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Utrecht is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
De Graafschap's form line: 27W 13D 16L from 56 games, 1.68 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for De Graafschap is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, De Graafschap are the form team by 0.86 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Jong Utrecht.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Utrecht have posted 1.07 PPG from 28 outings (7W 9D 12L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 9W 8D 11L from 28 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.68 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of De Graafschap's season.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Utrecht are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.82 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 64%.
Last 56 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Utrecht
Blended
De Graafschap
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Jong Utrecht have gone 10W 16D 30L in their last 56 games (0.82 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 27W 13D 16L in their last 56 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Utrecht at home or De Graafschap away?
De Graafschap's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Utrecht at home: 1.07 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
De Graafschap go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Jong Utrecht's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jong Utrecht
5
Draws
4
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong Utrecht have won 1, De Graafschap have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when De Graafschap 1-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap?
De Graafschap have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Utrecht 57%, De Graafschap 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Jong Utrecht) and 61% (De Graafschap). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht have failed to score in 36% of games; De Graafschap in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Utrecht home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Utrecht play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Jong Utrecht's games and 68% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong Utrecht vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 54% of Jong Utrecht's matches and 61% of De Graafschap's.
Do Jong Utrecht and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Jong Utrecht have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as De Graafschap edge out Jong Utrecht 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
De Graafschap beat Jong Utrecht 2-3 at Sportcomplex Zoudenbalch, Regular Season - 19, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Utrecht 1.55 xG and De Graafschap 1.80 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. De Graafschap outscored their 1.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Utrecht attack 1.00 / defence 1.03 against De Graafschap attack 1.22 / defence 0.91, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Utrecht 33% | Draw 23% | De Graafschap 44%, with De Graafschap to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Utrecht 57%, De Graafschap 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
De Graafschap's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, De Graafschap arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. De Graafschap (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.