Jong PSV U21 1-0 Jong AZ – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jong PSV U21 at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jong PSV U21 host Jong AZ at De Herdgang in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 29 August 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jong PSV U21 — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Jong PSV U21 have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at De Herdgang, Jong PSV U21 have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.00 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at De Herdgang this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong AZ stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Jong AZ have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Jong AZ away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Jong PSV U21 at 1.60 PPG versus Jong AZ's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 80% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 8 previous meetings, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, Jong AZ 3, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 7 Apr 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 95% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 90% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 90% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Jong AZ in-play tendencies (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong PSV U21 68% and Jong AZ 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong PSV U21 73% | Jong AZ 68%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong PSV U21 2.32 xG and Jong AZ 1.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.134 / defence 1.210 | Jong AZ attack 1.128 / defence 1.216. League average goals — home 1.681 / away 1.269. Jong AZ bring a strong defensive rating of 1.216 — this is suppressing Jong PSV U21's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 41 Jong PSV U21 games / 41 Jong AZ games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 29%. Fair-value odds: Jong PSV U21 1.96 | Draw 5.00 | Jong AZ 3.45. Jong PSV U21 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (20%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 77% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.05. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 77% — a total xG of 4.05 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.73) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong PSV U21 are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 4.05 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 77% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 74%. Form rates corroborate: Jong PSV U21 90% | Jong AZ 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: De Herdgang • Kick-off: Friday 29 Aug 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 77% | BTTS 74% | xG Jong PSV U21 2.32 / Jong AZ 1.73 • Poisson strength factors: Jong PSV U21 attack 1.134 / def 1.210 | Jong AZ attack 1.128 / def 1.216 | league avg home 1.681 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Jong PSV U21 (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.32
Jong PSV U21 xG
Expected Goals
1.73
Jong AZ xG
74%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
77%
Over 2.5
58%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kick off?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 29 August 2025 at De Herdgang.
What was the final score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 1 - 0 Jong AZ.
Where is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ being played?
The match is being played at De Herdgang.
What competition is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ part of?
Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our statistical model gives Jong PSV U21 a 51% chance of winning, Jong AZ a 29% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Jong PSV U21 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our model estimates a 74% probability that both Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ will score (BTTS).
Will Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 77%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Record (8 meetings): Jong PSV U21 3W | Draws 2 | Jong AZ 3W.
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in?
Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Jong AZ (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Jong PSV U21's attacking strength (1.13x league average) is weighed against Jong AZ's defensive record (1.22x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.32. The same calculation in reverse, Jong AZ's attack versus Jong PSV U21's defence, projects 1.73 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-1, at 8.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 2-2 (7.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong PSV U21 Win
51%
1.95
20%
5.05
29%
3.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
2 – 2
7.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.32
Jong PSV U21 xG
Total xG
4.05
1.73
Jong AZ xG
1.95
51%
Home win
5.05
20%
Draw
3.45
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
77%
Over 2.5
1.30
23%
Under 2.5
4.35
58%
Over 3.5
1.72
42%
Under 3.5
2.38
38%
Over 4.5
2.63
62%
Under 4.5
1.61
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
74%
BTTS Yes
1.35
26%
BTTS No
3.88
Clean Sheet
18%
5.65
10%
10.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.03
3%
35.05
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.0 | 7.0 | 6.1 | 3.5 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 8.1 | 7.0 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 6.3 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.1%.
How many goals are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ expected to score?
The model projects 2.32 expected goals for Jong PSV U21 and 1.73 for Jong AZ, a combined total of 4.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Jong PSV U21's recent record stands at 11W 6D 24L from 41 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Jong AZ, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 17L across 41 games — 1.27 PPG, with W-W-L-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Jong AZ, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong PSV U21 on 0.95 PPG, Jong AZ on 1.27. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Jong PSV U21 have managed 5W 3D 12L from 20 games — 0.90 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong AZ's away record stands at 8W 4D 8L across 20 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong PSV U21 are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 2.15 conceded per game recently; Jong AZ are on 1.76 scored and 1.73 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 have seen both teams score in 68% of their recent games; Jong AZ in 68%.
Last 41 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong PSV U21
Early Season
Jong AZ
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ in coming into this match?
Jong PSV U21 have gone 11W 6D 24L in their last 41 games (0.95 PPG), while Jong AZ have gone 14W 10D 17L in their last 41 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong PSV U21 at home or Jong AZ away?
Jong AZ's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong PSV U21 at home: 0.90 PPG; Jong AZ away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 13 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Jong PSV U21 go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Mar 2024, when Jong AZ won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong PSV U21's record when hosting Jong AZ specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jong PSV U21
2
Draws
3
Jong AZ
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong PSV U21 have won 5, Jong AZ have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ last play each other?
They last met on 13 April 2026, when Jong AZ 0-2 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ?
Jong PSV U21 have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 95% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Jong PSV U21 at 90%, Jong AZ at 60%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 90% for Jong PSV U21 and 65% for Jong AZ. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 70% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong PSV U21 home games / Jong AZ away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong PSV U21 play Jong AZ?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 90% of Jong PSV U21's games and 60% of Jong AZ's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong PSV U21 vs Jong AZ usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 90% of Jong PSV U21's matches and 65% of Jong AZ's.
Do Jong PSV U21 and Jong AZ tend to score early?
Jong PSV U21 have had a goal before half-time in 95% of their recent matches, Jong AZ in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong PSV U21 edge out Jong AZ 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong PSV U21 beat Jong AZ 1-0 at De Herdgang, Regular Season - 4, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong PSV U21 2.32 xG and Jong AZ 1.73 xG, a combined 4.05. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Jong PSV U21 fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Jong AZ landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong PSV U21 attack 1.13 / defence 1.21 against Jong AZ attack 1.13 / defence 1.22, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Jong PSV U21 51% | Draw 20% | Jong AZ 29%, with Jong PSV U21 to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 77%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and missed. Over 3.5 was 58% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong PSV U21 73%, Jong AZ 68%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 68%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong AZ's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong PSV U21 0.95 PPG, Jong AZ 1.27 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong PSV U21 win broke the near-deadlock. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.80 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.45 average — tighter than their form line. Jong AZ (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.55 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.85 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.