Jong Ajax 3-2 Excelsior – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jong Ajax at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jong Ajax vs Excelsior fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 25 sees Excelsior travel to Sportpark De Toekomst to take on Jong Ajax. The game is scheduled for Monday 10 February 2025, 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jong Ajax stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Jong Ajax, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sportpark De Toekomst, Jong Ajax have gone 4W 2D 4L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sportpark De Toekomst. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Excelsior have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Excelsior, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Excelsior's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (Jong Ajax) versus 1.60 (Excelsior). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The previous 3 encounters between these sides heavily favour Excelsior, who boast 3 victories compared to 0 for Jong Ajax.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 4.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2024, ended 0–2 with Excelsior winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Excelsior have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.3 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Jong Ajax in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Excelsior in-play and half-time data (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 49%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jong Ajax 56% versus Excelsior 59%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Jong Ajax 64% | Excelsior 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong Ajax 1.47 xG and Excelsior 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong Ajax attack 1.030 / defence 0.709 | Excelsior attack 0.881 / defence 0.857. League average goals — home 1.662 / away 1.274. Jong Ajax's defence rating of 0.709 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 61 Jong Ajax games / 24 Excelsior games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 20%. Fair-value odds: Jong Ajax 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Excelsior 5.00. Jong Ajax hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jong Ajax at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jong Ajax offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.26 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Jong Ajax 30% | Excelsior 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong Ajax vs Excelsior | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Sportpark De Toekomst • Kick-off: Monday 10 Feb 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 43% | xG Jong Ajax 1.47 / Excelsior 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Jong Ajax attack 1.030 / def 0.709 | Excelsior attack 0.881 / def 0.857 | league avg home 1.662 / away 1.274 • Poisson stance: Jong Ajax (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Jong Ajax xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Excelsior xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong Ajax vs Excelsior kick off?
Jong Ajax vs Excelsior kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 10 February 2025 at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What was the final score in Jong Ajax vs Excelsior?
Jong Ajax 3 - 2 Excelsior.
Where is Jong Ajax vs Excelsior being played?
The match is being played at Sportpark De Toekomst.
What competition is Jong Ajax vs Excelsior part of?
Jong Ajax vs Excelsior is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong Ajax vs Excelsior?
Our statistical model gives Jong Ajax a 53% chance of winning, Excelsior a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jong Ajax the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong Ajax vs Excelsior?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Jong Ajax and Excelsior will score (BTTS).
Will Jong Ajax vs Excelsior have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Excelsior?
Record (3 meetings): Jong Ajax 0W | Draws 0 | Excelsior 3W.
What form are Jong Ajax and Excelsior in?
Jong Ajax (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Excelsior (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Jong Ajax's attack rating (1.03) and Excelsior's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Excelsior's attack versus Jong Ajax's defence, projects 0.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong Ajax Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.63
20%
5.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Jong Ajax xG
Total xG
2.26
0.80
Excelsior xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.63
28%
Draw
5.03
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
45%
2.22
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
24%
4.22
5%
21.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.4 | 8.3 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 12.2 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.5 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong Ajax vs Excelsior?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Jong Ajax and Excelsior expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Jong Ajax and 0.80 for Excelsior, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong Ajax vs Excelsior?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Jong Ajax have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 16W 16D 29L record — L-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Jong Ajax is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Excelsior's form line: 21W 17D 23L from 61 games, 1.31 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-L. The sample for Excelsior is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jong Ajax on 1.05 PPG, Excelsior on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Jong Ajax have posted 1.47 PPG from 30 outings (12W 8D 10L). That's noticeably better than their 1.05 PPG overall — Jong Ajax are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Excelsior have gone 6W 9D 15L from 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.31 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Excelsior's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong Ajax come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Jong Ajax are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Excelsior are on 1.69 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong Ajax
Blended
Excelsior
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong Ajax and Excelsior in coming into this match?
Jong Ajax have gone 16W 16D 29L in their last 61 games (1.05 PPG), while Excelsior have gone 21W 17D 23L in their last 61 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong Ajax at home or Excelsior away?
Jong Ajax's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong Ajax at home: 1.47 PPG; Excelsior away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Feb 2022, when Excelsior won 6-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jong Ajax's record when hosting Excelsior specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Jong Ajax
0
Draws
3
Excelsior
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong Ajax and Excelsior?
From 4 meetings on record, Jong Ajax have won 1, Excelsior have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Jong Ajax and Excelsior last play each other?
They last met on 10 February 2025, when Jong Ajax 3-2 Excelsior.
Who has won more matches between Jong Ajax and Excelsior?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Jong Ajax are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong Ajax 40%, Excelsior 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 53% for Jong Ajax and 77% for Excelsior. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Ajax keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Jong Ajax have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong Ajax home games / Excelsior away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong Ajax play Excelsior?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Jong Ajax's recent matches and 63% of Excelsior's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jong Ajax vs Excelsior usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Jong Ajax's matches and 77% of Excelsior's.
Do Jong Ajax and Excelsior tend to score early?
Jong Ajax have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Excelsior in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong Ajax edge out Excelsior 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong Ajax beat Excelsior 3-2 at Sportpark De Toekomst, Regular Season - 25, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong Ajax 1.47 xG and Excelsior 0.80 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jong Ajax beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Excelsior outscored their 0.80 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong Ajax attack 1.03 / defence 0.71 against Excelsior attack 0.88 / defence 0.86, drawn from 61/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong Ajax 53% | Draw 28% | Excelsior 20%, with Jong Ajax to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong Ajax 64%, Excelsior 69%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong Ajax's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Excelsior's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong Ajax 1.05 PPG, Excelsior 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong Ajax win broke the near-deadlock. Jong Ajax (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.40 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Excelsior (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.