FC OSS 0-2 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC OSS at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC OSS vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC OSS host Roda at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 17 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC OSS — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC OSS's home record at Frans Heesen Stadion: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Roda stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Roda, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Roda have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — FC OSS at 1.60 PPG versus Roda's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
Roda have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the last 7 encounters against FC OSS's 1 victories.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Roda have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
FC OSS in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Roda in-play and half-time data (59 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 42% versus Roda 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 48% | Roda 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.46 xG and Roda 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.834 / defence 0.983 | Roda attack 0.971 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.545 / away 1.399. Data: 59 FC OSS games / 58 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 27% | Roda 33%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 2.56 | Draw 3.70 | Roda 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is FC OSS at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC OSS offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 50% | Roda 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 17 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 39% | Draw 27% | Roda 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 58% | xG FC OSS 1.46 / Roda 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.834 / def 0.983 | Roda attack 0.971 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.545 / away 1.399 • Poisson stance: FC OSS (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.34
Roda xG
58%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Roda kick off?
FC OSS vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 17 January 2025 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Roda?
FC OSS 0 - 2 Roda.
Where is FC OSS vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Roda part of?
FC OSS vs Roda is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 39% chance of winning, Roda a 33% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making FC OSS the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both FC OSS and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
Record (7 meetings): FC OSS 1W | Draws 2 | Roda 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Roda in?
FC OSS (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-W-L-W. Roda (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates FC OSS's attack at 0.83x the league average against Roda's defence at 1.14x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Roda's attack versus FC OSS's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC OSS Win
39%
2.55
27%
3.64
33%
3.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
FC OSS xG
Total xG
2.80
1.34
Roda xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.64
27%
Draw
3.00
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
26%
3.80
23%
4.32
Win to Nil
10%
9.71
8%
12.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 7.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.7 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.34 for Roda, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
FC OSS's recent record stands at 16W 11D 32L from 59 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-D-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 28W 18D 13L across 59 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-D-W-L-L in their last five. The sample for Roda is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Roda by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over FC OSS heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 13W 4D 13L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.00 PPG overall — FC OSS are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Roda's away record stands at 9W 12D 9L across 30 trips, a 1.30 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.73 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Roda's season.
Goals in Recent Form
FC OSS are averaging 0.83 goals scored and 1.68 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.56 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Roda
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Roda in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 16W 11D 32L in their last 59 games (1.00 PPG), while Roda have gone 28W 18D 13L in their last 59 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Roda away?
FC OSS's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.43 PPG; Roda away: 1.30 PPG.
Have FC OSS or Roda been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC OSS have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Roda in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 23 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 21 Oct 2022, when FC OSS won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC OSS's record when hosting Roda specifically: 1W 0D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC OSS
2
Draws
6
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 2, Roda have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 23 January 2026, when Roda 1-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 23% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 53%, Roda 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC OSS) and 47% (Roda).
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 27% of games; Roda in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of FC OSS's games and 63% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC OSS vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of FC OSS's recent games and 47% of Roda's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and Roda tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Roda in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat FC OSS 0-2 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.46 xG and Roda 1.34 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC OSS fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.83 / defence 0.98 against Roda attack 0.97 / defence 1.14, drawn from 59/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 39% | Draw 27% | Roda 33%, with FC OSS to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Roda win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 48%, Roda 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (59 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Roda's trading profile (59 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Roda arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. FC OSS (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.10 scoring average — below par going forward. Roda (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.43 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.