FC OSS 1-0 Den Bosch – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Den Bosch (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as FC OSS face Den Bosch.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC OSS and Den Bosch meet at Frans Heesen Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
FC OSS (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for FC OSS, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, FC OSS have posted 3W 3D 4L at Frans Heesen Stadion — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — FC OSS are significantly better at Frans Heesen Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Den Bosch's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Den Bosch, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Den Bosch's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Den Bosch arrive in superior form — a 1.50 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.60) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for FC OSS, 4 for Den Bosch and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Mar 2024, ended 1–2 with Den Bosch winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC OSS — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Den Bosch — key trading statistics (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC OSS 43% versus Den Bosch 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC OSS 49% | Den Bosch 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC OSS 1.22 xG and Den Bosch 1.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC OSS attack 0.853 / defence 1.270 | Den Bosch attack 0.970 / defence 0.964. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.509. Data: 51 FC OSS games / 51 Den Bosch games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC OSS 24% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 51%. Fair-value odds: FC OSS 4.17 | Draw 4.00 | Den Bosch 1.96. Den Bosch hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.22 / 1.86) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Den Bosch are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Den Bosch if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: FC OSS 70% | Den Bosch 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC OSS vs Den Bosch | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Frans Heesen Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC OSS 24% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 60% | xG FC OSS 1.22 / Den Bosch 1.86 • Poisson strength factors: FC OSS attack 0.853 / def 1.270 | Den Bosch attack 0.970 / def 0.964 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.509 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (51%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.22
FC OSS xG
Expected Goals
1.86
Den Bosch xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC OSS vs Den Bosch kick off?
FC OSS vs Den Bosch kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What was the final score in FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
FC OSS 1 - 0 Den Bosch.
Where is FC OSS vs Den Bosch being played?
The match is being played at Frans Heesen Stadion.
What competition is FC OSS vs Den Bosch part of?
FC OSS vs Den Bosch is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our statistical model gives FC OSS a 24% chance of winning, Den Bosch a 51% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both FC OSS and Den Bosch will score (BTTS).
Will FC OSS vs Den Bosch have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
Record (6 meetings): FC OSS 2W | Draws 0 | Den Bosch 4W.
What form are FC OSS and Den Bosch in?
FC OSS (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-D-L-W-D. Den Bosch (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
What do the betting odds say about FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
FC OSS's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Den Bosch's defensive record (0.96x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.22. Flip it around — Den Bosch's attack (0.97x) against FC OSS's defence (1.27x) — and the away total comes out at 1.86.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.7%), 0-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
24%
4.16
25%
4.06
51%
1.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.7%
Away win
0 – 1
8.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.22
FC OSS xG
Total xG
3.08
1.86
Den Bosch xG
4.16
24%
Home win
4.06
25%
Draw
1.95
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.65
40%
BTTS No
2.53
Clean Sheet
16%
6.41
29%
3.39
Win to Nil
4%
26.69
15%
6.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 4.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 5.6 | 10.4 | 9.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 6.4 | 5.9 | 3.7 | 1.7 | 0.6 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are FC OSS and Den Bosch expected to score?
The model projects 1.22 expected goals for FC OSS and 1.86 for Den Bosch, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for FC OSS vs Den Bosch?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC OSS's recent record stands at 13W 8D 30L from 51 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-D in the last five. The sample for FC OSS is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Den Bosch, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 23L across 51 games — 1.14 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Den Bosch is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for FC OSS against 1.14 for Den Bosch. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC OSS have managed 9W 3D 13L from 25 games — 1.20 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Den Bosch's away record stands at 8W 4D 13L across 25 trips, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC OSS are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Den Bosch are on 1.25 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC OSS
Blended
Den Bosch
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC OSS and Den Bosch in coming into this match?
FC OSS have gone 13W 8D 30L in their last 51 games (0.92 PPG), while Den Bosch have gone 15W 13D 23L in their last 51 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC OSS at home or Den Bosch away?
FC OSS's home record (1.20 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC OSS at home: 1.20 PPG; Den Bosch away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Den Bosch won 4-1 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC OSS have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Den Bosch — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC OSS
0
Draws
6
Den Bosch
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
From 10 meetings on record, FC OSS have won 4, Den Bosch have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did FC OSS and Den Bosch last play each other?
They last met on 17 April 2026, when FC OSS 4-2 Den Bosch.
Who has won more matches between FC OSS and Den Bosch?
Den Bosch have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 24% of those situations.
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC OSS 52%, Den Bosch 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (FC OSS) and 52% (Den Bosch).
On the defensive side: FC OSS have failed to score in 32% of games; Den Bosch in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC OSS home games / Den Bosch away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC OSS play Den Bosch?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of FC OSS's recent matches and 40% of Den Bosch's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC OSS vs Den Bosch usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of FC OSS's recent games and 52% of Den Bosch's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC OSS and Den Bosch tend to score early?
FC OSS have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Den Bosch in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC OSS defy the odds to beat Den Bosch 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC OSS beat Den Bosch 1-0 at Frans Heesen Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC OSS 1.22 xG and Den Bosch 1.86 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Den Bosch landed 1.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC OSS attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Den Bosch attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC OSS 24% | Draw 25% | Den Bosch 51%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a FC OSS win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC OSS 49%, Den Bosch 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC OSS's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not.
Den Bosch's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC OSS 0.92 PPG, Den Bosch 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC OSS win broke the near-deadlock. FC OSS (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line. Den Bosch (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.