FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Roda at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC Eindhoven vs Roda fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
FC Eindhoven and Roda meet at Jan Louwers Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36. This fixture gets under way on Friday 10 April 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
FC Eindhoven's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home at Jan Louwers Stadion, FC Eindhoven have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC Eindhoven are significantly better at Jan Louwers Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Roda have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D L D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
On the road, Roda have gone 5W 5D 0L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.00 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.30 vs 1.20 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — FC Eindhoven have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Roda in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — FC Eindhoven lead 2W to 2W over the last 9 encounters, with 5 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
FC Eindhoven — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 44%.
Roda — key trading statistics (73 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Eindhoven 48% versus Roda 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Eindhoven 63% | Roda 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Eindhoven 1.49 xG and Roda 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Eindhoven attack 1.121 / defence 0.966 | Roda attack 1.164 / defence 0.827. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.486. Data: 73 FC Eindhoven games / 73 Roda games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 23% | Roda 42%. Fair-value odds: FC Eindhoven 2.94 | Draw 4.35 | Roda 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 63% | Total xG 3.16. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.16 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 63% reflects that both xG figures (1.49 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Roda are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Roda if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.16 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 63%. Form rates corroborate: FC Eindhoven 60% | Roda 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Eindhoven vs Roda | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: Jan Louwers Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 23% | Roda 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 63% | xG FC Eindhoven 1.49 / Roda 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: FC Eindhoven attack 1.121 / def 0.966 | Roda attack 1.164 / def 0.827 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: Roda (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
FC Eindhoven xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Roda xG
63%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Eindhoven vs Roda kick off?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What was the final score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
FC Eindhoven 1 - 3 Roda.
Where is FC Eindhoven vs Roda being played?
The match is being played at Jan Louwers Stadion.
What competition is FC Eindhoven vs Roda part of?
FC Eindhoven vs Roda is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our statistical model gives FC Eindhoven a 34% chance of winning, Roda a 42% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Roda the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our model estimates a 63% probability that both FC Eindhoven and Roda will score (BTTS).
Will FC Eindhoven vs Roda have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Record (9 meetings): FC Eindhoven 2W | Draws 5 | Roda 2W.
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in?
FC Eindhoven (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Roda (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates FC Eindhoven's attack at 1.12x the league average against Roda's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Roda's attack (1.16x) against FC Eindhoven's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.67.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Roda Win
34%
2.91
23%
4.26
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
FC Eindhoven xG
Total xG
3.16
1.67
Roda xG
2.91
34%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
63%
BTTS Yes
1.59
37%
BTTS No
2.70
Clean Sheet
19%
5.32
23%
4.44
Win to Nil
6%
15.48
9%
10.54
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 7.1 | 5.9 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.5 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 7.9 | 6.6 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.3 | 3.9 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are FC Eindhoven and Roda expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for FC Eindhoven and 1.67 for Roda, a combined total of 3.16.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Eindhoven vs Roda?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
FC Eindhoven's recent record stands at 27W 14D 32L from 73 games, a 1.30 PPG return, with W-L-W-D-L in the last five.
Roda, meanwhile, have gone 26W 22D 25L across 73 games — 1.37 PPG, with D-L-D-W-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.30 PPG for FC Eindhoven against 1.37 for Roda. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, FC Eindhoven have managed 13W 8D 15L from 36 games — 1.31 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Roda's away record stands at 13W 11D 12L across 36 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
FC Eindhoven are averaging 1.47 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Roda are on 1.41 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 73 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Eindhoven
Current Season
Roda
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC Eindhoven and Roda in coming into this match?
FC Eindhoven have gone 27W 14D 32L in their last 73 games (1.30 PPG), while Roda have gone 26W 22D 25L in their last 73 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC Eindhoven at home or Roda away?
Roda's away record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC Eindhoven at home: 1.31 PPG; Roda away: 1.39 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Roda won 3-0 on 22 Jan 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC Eindhoven have gone 0W 4D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Roda — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
FC Eindhoven
5
Draws
3
Roda
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
From 10 meetings on record, FC Eindhoven have won 2, Roda have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did FC Eindhoven and Roda last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when FC Eindhoven 1-3 Roda.
Who has won more matches between FC Eindhoven and Roda?
Roda have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
FC Eindhoven are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
Roda are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC Eindhoven 47%, Roda 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for FC Eindhoven and 69% for Roda. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Eindhoven keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; FC Eindhoven have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Eindhoven home games / Roda away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC Eindhoven play Roda?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of FC Eindhoven's games and 72% of Roda's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is FC Eindhoven vs Roda usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of FC Eindhoven's matches and 69% of Roda's.
Do FC Eindhoven and Roda tend to score early?
FC Eindhoven have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Roda in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Roda cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over FC Eindhoven.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Roda beat FC Eindhoven 1-3 at Jan Louwers Stadion, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Eindhoven 1.49 xG and Roda 1.67 xG, a combined 3.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Roda outscored their 1.67 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Eindhoven attack 1.12 / defence 0.97 against Roda attack 1.16 / defence 0.83, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Eindhoven 34% | Draw 23% | Roda 42%, with Roda to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 63% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC Eindhoven 63%, Roda 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC Eindhoven's trading profile (73 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Roda's trading profile (73 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC Eindhoven 1.30 PPG, Roda 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Roda win broke the near-deadlock. FC Eindhoven (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Roda (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.