Excelsior 3-0 Jong Utrecht – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Excelsior (67%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Excelsior face Jong Utrecht.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Excelsior and Jong Utrecht meet at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32. This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 March 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Excelsior's overall Eerste Divisie record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Excelsior have posted 5W 3D 2L at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
Jong Utrecht have collected 0.50 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 1W 2D 7L. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season.
Jong Utrecht away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Excelsior. A 0.90 PPG lead over Jong Utrecht (1.40 vs 0.50) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Excelsior lead 2W to 0W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Nov 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Excelsior half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
Jong Utrecht half-time and goal-timing data (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Excelsior 63% versus Jong Utrecht 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Excelsior 69% | Jong Utrecht 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Excelsior 2.09 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Excelsior attack 0.913 / defence 0.896 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.692 / defence 1.392. League average goals — home 1.642 / away 1.273. Jong Utrecht bring a strong defensive rating of 1.392 — this is suppressing Excelsior's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Excelsior games / 68 Jong Utrecht games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Excelsior 67% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 13%. Fair-value odds: Excelsior 1.49 | Draw 5.00 | Jong Utrecht 7.69. The model has a clear lean to Excelsior (67%) — a 54pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Excelsior at 67% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: Excelsior 40% | Jong Utrecht 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Van Donge & De Roo Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 28 Mar 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Excelsior 67% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 48% | xG Excelsior 2.09 / Jong Utrecht 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Excelsior attack 0.913 / def 0.896 | Jong Utrecht attack 0.692 / def 1.392 | league avg home 1.642 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Excelsior (67%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.09
Excelsior xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Jong Utrecht xG
48%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht kick off?
Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 28 March 2025 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What was the final score in Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Excelsior 3 - 0 Jong Utrecht.
Where is Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht being played?
The match is being played at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion.
What competition is Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht part of?
Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Our statistical model gives Excelsior a 67% chance of winning, Jong Utrecht a 13% chance, and a 20% chance of a draw — making Excelsior the favourite.
Will both teams score in Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Excelsior and Jong Utrecht will score (BTTS).
Will Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong Utrecht?
Record (3 meetings): Excelsior 2W | Draws 1 | Jong Utrecht 0W.
What form are Excelsior and Jong Utrecht in?
Excelsior (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Jong Utrecht (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Excelsior's attack at 0.91x the league average against Jong Utrecht's defence at 1.39x — combine the two and it projects 2.09 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Jong Utrecht's attack (0.69x) against Excelsior's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 0.79.
These ratings are built from 31/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 1-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Excelsior Win
67%
1.49
20%
5.07
13%
7.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.09
Excelsior xG
Total xG
2.88
0.79
Jong Utrecht xG
1.49
67%
Home win
5.07
20%
Draw
7.72
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
45%
2.20
12%
8.05
Win to Nil
31%
3.27
2%
62.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 9.3 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.7 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.5 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.9 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Excelsior and Jong Utrecht expected to score?
The model projects 2.09 expected goals for Excelsior and 0.79 for Jong Utrecht, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Excelsior's recent record stands at 24W 19D 25L from 68 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-W in the last five.
Jong Utrecht, meanwhile, have gone 8W 20D 40L across 68 games — 0.65 PPG, with L-D-L-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Excelsior by 0.69 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Jong Utrecht heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Excelsior have managed 16W 10D 8L from 34 games — 1.71 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jong Utrecht's away record stands at 2W 9D 23L across 34 trips, a 0.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Excelsior come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Excelsior are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 1.66 conceded per game recently; Jong Utrecht are on 0.84 scored and 2.03 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Excelsior have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 68 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Excelsior
Current Season
Jong Utrecht
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Excelsior and Jong Utrecht in coming into this match?
Excelsior have gone 24W 19D 25L in their last 68 games (1.34 PPG), while Jong Utrecht have gone 8W 20D 40L in their last 68 (0.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Excelsior at home or Jong Utrecht away?
Excelsior's home record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Excelsior at home: 1.71 PPG; Jong Utrecht away: 0.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Excelsior won 3-0 on 28 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Excelsior have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Jong Utrecht — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Excelsior
1
Draws
0
Jong Utrecht
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Excelsior and Jong Utrecht?
From 4 meetings on record, Excelsior have won 3, Jong Utrecht have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Excelsior and Jong Utrecht last play each other?
They last met on 28 March 2025, when Excelsior 3-0 Jong Utrecht.
Who has won more matches between Excelsior and Jong Utrecht?
Excelsior have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Excelsior are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Jong Utrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Excelsior 59%, Jong Utrecht 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Excelsior and 62% for Jong Utrecht. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong Utrecht in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Excelsior home games / Jong Utrecht away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Excelsior play Jong Utrecht?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Excelsior's games and 56% of Jong Utrecht's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Excelsior vs Jong Utrecht usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Excelsior's matches and 62% of Jong Utrecht's.
Do Excelsior and Jong Utrecht tend to score early?
Excelsior have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Jong Utrecht in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Excelsior run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Jong Utrecht.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Excelsior beat Jong Utrecht 3-0 at Van Donge & De Roo Stadion, Regular Season - 32, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Excelsior 2.09 xG and Jong Utrecht 0.79 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Excelsior beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Excelsior attack 0.91 / defence 0.90 against Jong Utrecht attack 0.69 / defence 1.39, drawn from 31/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Excelsior 67% | Draw 20% | Jong Utrecht 13%, with Excelsior to win its most likely call at 67%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Excelsior 69%, Jong Utrecht 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Excelsior's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Jong Utrecht's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 44% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Excelsior arrived the stronger side — 1.34 PPG against 0.65. Form held, and they took the win. Excelsior (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Jong Utrecht (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.82 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.