Emmen 4-2 Jong PSV U21 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Emmen (44%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emmen face Jong PSV U21.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Eerste Divisie clash, Regular Season - 24 as Emmen welcome Jong PSV U21 to De Oude Meerdijk. Kick-off is set for Friday 31 January 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Emmen stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Eerste Divisie matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Emmen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Emmen have posted 3W 3D 4L at De Oude Meerdijk — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Jong PSV U21 have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Jong PSV U21, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Eerste Divisie this season, Jong PSV U21 have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Emmen are in the better shape of the two on current Eerste Divisie data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 4 of 5 past contests while Jong PSV U21 have managed just 1 wins.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2024, ended 3–2 with Emmen winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Emmen and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Emmen in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Jong PSV U21 in-play tendencies (61 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 87% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 68% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Emmen 54% versus Jong PSV U21 66%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 61% | Jong PSV U21 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.48 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 0.886 / defence 1.128 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.812 / defence 1.029. League average goals — home 1.626 / away 1.287. Data: 60 Emmen games / 61 Jong PSV U21 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 44% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 30%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.27 | Draw 3.85 | Jong PSV U21 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Emmen are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.66 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Emmen 60% | Jong PSV U21 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jan 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 44% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Emmen 1.48 / Jong PSV U21 1.18 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 0.886 / def 1.128 | Jong PSV U21 attack 0.812 / def 1.029 | league avg home 1.626 / away 1.287 • Poisson stance: Emmen (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.18
Jong PSV U21 xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kick off?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 31 January 2025 at De Oude Meerdijk.
What was the final score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Emmen 4 - 2 Jong PSV U21.
Where is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 part of?
Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 44% chance of winning, Jong PSV U21 a 30% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Emmen and Jong PSV U21 will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Record (5 meetings): Emmen 4W | Draws 0 | Jong PSV U21 1W.
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in?
Emmen (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. Jong PSV U21 (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 0.89x the league average against Jong PSV U21's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Jong PSV U21's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.18 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
44%
2.28
26%
3.79
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.66
1.18
Jong PSV U21 xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
31%
3.25
23%
4.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.42
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 9.0 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Emmen and 1.18 for Jong PSV U21, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs Jong PSV U21?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Emmen come into this having played 61 games, going 26W 11D 24L for 1.46 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for Emmen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Jong PSV U21 sit at 1.00 PPG from 61 outings (17W 10D 34L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Jong PSV U21 is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Emmen carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Jong PSV U21 — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Emmen's home form reads 13W 6D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Jong PSV U21 have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (9W 4D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Emmen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Jong PSV U21 are on 1.59 scored and 2.08 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong PSV U21 in 66%.
Last 61 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Blended
Jong PSV U21
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and Jong PSV U21 in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 26W 11D 24L in their last 61 games (1.46 PPG), while Jong PSV U21 have gone 17W 10D 34L in their last 61 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or Jong PSV U21 away?
Emmen's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.45 PPG; Jong PSV U21 away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 20 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Jong PSV U21 have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Feb 2024, when Jong PSV U21 won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting Jong PSV U21 specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
0
Draws
3
Jong PSV U21
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, Jong PSV U21 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and Jong PSV U21 last play each other?
They last met on 20 February 2026, when Emmen 2-3 Jong PSV U21.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and Jong PSV U21?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jong PSV U21 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 87% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Emmen 48%, Jong PSV U21 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 55% for Emmen and 68% for Jong PSV U21. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 26% and 52% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Emmen keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Jong PSV U21 in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / Jong PSV U21 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play Jong PSV U21?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Emmen's recent matches and 55% of Jong PSV U21's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Emmen vs Jong PSV U21 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Emmen's matches and 68% of Jong PSV U21's.
Do Emmen and Jong PSV U21 tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Jong PSV U21 in 87% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Emmen cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Jong PSV U21.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Emmen beat Jong PSV U21 4-2 at De Oude Meerdijk, Regular Season - 24, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Emmen 1.48 xG and Jong PSV U21 1.18 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Emmen beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Jong PSV U21 outscored their 1.18 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Emmen attack 0.89 / defence 1.13 against Jong PSV U21 attack 0.81 / defence 1.03, drawn from 60/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Emmen 44% | Draw 26% | Jong PSV U21 30%, with Emmen to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Emmen 61%, Jong PSV U21 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Emmen's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jong PSV U21's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Emmen arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 1.00. That form edge translated into the three points. Emmen (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.48 average — above their attacking norm. Jong PSV U21 (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.