Emmen vs De Graafschap – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Emmen (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Emmen face De Graafschap.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees De Graafschap travel to De Oude Meerdijk to take on Emmen. The game is scheduled for Friday 11 September 2026, 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Emmen have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.10 conceded. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Emmen have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Emmen at De Oude Meerdijk this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
De Graafschap — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.20. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. De Graafschap have played only a handful of Eerste Divisie games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
De Graafschap's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Emmen carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.80 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.90. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Emmen have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 8 past contests while De Graafschap have managed just 2 wins.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Apr 2026, ended 1–0 with Emmen winning.
The historical record gives Emmen a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Data
Emmen trading profile (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
De Graafschap trading profile (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Emmen 60% and De Graafschap 76% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Emmen 64% | De Graafschap 69%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Emmen 1.69 xG and De Graafschap 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Emmen attack 1.032 / defence 0.779 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / defence 0.923. League average goals — home 1.770 / away 1.698. Emmen's defence rating of 0.779 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 42 Emmen games / 42 De Graafschap games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Emmen 48% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 28%. Fair-value odds: Emmen 2.08 | Draw 4.17 | De Graafschap 3.57. Emmen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.92. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.92 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Emmen as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Emmen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.92 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Emmen 40% | De Graafschap 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Emmen vs De Graafschap | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: De Oude Meerdijk • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Emmen 48% | Draw 24% | De Graafschap 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Emmen 1.69 / De Graafschap 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Emmen attack 1.032 / def 0.779 | De Graafschap attack 0.934 / def 0.923 | league avg home 1.770 / away 1.698 • Poisson stance: Emmen (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Emmen xG
Expected Goals
1.24
De Graafschap xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Emmen vs De Graafschap kick off?
Emmen vs De Graafschap is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at De Oude Meerdijk.
Where is Emmen vs De Graafschap being played?
The match is being played at De Oude Meerdijk.
What competition is Emmen vs De Graafschap part of?
Emmen vs De Graafschap is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our statistical model gives Emmen a 48% chance of winning, De Graafschap a 28% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Emmen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Emmen and De Graafschap will score (BTTS).
Will Emmen vs De Graafschap have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Record (8 meetings): Emmen 5W | Draws 1 | De Graafschap 2W.
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in?
Emmen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.10 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. De Graafschap (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.20 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Emmen's attack at 1.03x the league average against De Graafschap's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, De Graafschap's attack versus Emmen's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Emmen Win
48%
2.09
24%
4.17
28%
3.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Emmen xG
Total xG
2.92
1.24
De Graafschap xG
2.09
48%
Home win
4.17
24%
Draw
3.56
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
29%
3.44
19%
5.39
Win to Nil
14%
7.18
5%
19.20
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.7 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.1 | 11.2 | 6.9 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 5.3 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.8 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Emmen and De Graafschap expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Emmen and 1.24 for De Graafschap, a combined total of 2.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Emmen vs De Graafschap?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 42 outings, Emmen have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 15W 9D 18L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Emmen, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
De Graafschap's form line: 17W 11D 14L from 42 games, 1.48 PPG, last five D-D-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for De Graafschap, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Emmen on 1.29 PPG, De Graafschap on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Emmen have posted 1.67 PPG from 21 outings (10W 5D 6L).
On the road, De Graafschap have gone 8W 7D 6L from 21 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Emmen are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.93 conceded per game recently; De Graafschap are on 1.88 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: De Graafschap in 76%.
Last 42 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Emmen
Early Season
De Graafschap
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Emmen and De Graafschap in coming into this match?
Emmen have gone 15W 9D 18L in their last 42 games (1.29 PPG), while De Graafschap have gone 17W 11D 14L in their last 42 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Emmen at home or De Graafschap away?
Emmen's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Emmen at home: 1.67 PPG; De Graafschap away: 1.48 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 24 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Emmen have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 24 Jan 2025, when De Graafschap won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Emmen's record when hosting De Graafschap specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Emmen
1
Draws
2
De Graafschap
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Emmen and De Graafschap?
From 8 meetings on record, Emmen have won 5, De Graafschap have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Emmen and De Graafschap last play each other?
They last met on 24 April 2026, when Emmen 1-0 De Graafschap.
Who has won more matches between Emmen and De Graafschap?
Emmen have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Emmen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
De Graafschap are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Emmen at 62%, De Graafschap at 76%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Emmen and 67% for De Graafschap. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Emmen home games / De Graafschap away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Emmen play De Graafschap?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Emmen's games and 76% of De Graafschap's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Emmen vs De Graafschap usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Emmen's matches and 67% of De Graafschap's.
Do Emmen and De Graafschap tend to score early?
Emmen have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, De Graafschap in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.