Dordrecht 3-1 FC OSS – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Dordrecht (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Dordrecht face FC OSS.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Dordrecht and FC OSS meet at M-Scores Stadion in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Friday 19 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dordrecht have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Dordrecht's home record at M-Scores Stadion: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Eerste Divisie appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at M-Scores Stadion.
FC OSS (all games): 5W 0D 5L across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
FC OSS's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Dordrecht's 2.30 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of FC OSS's 1.50 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dordrecht lead 3W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Dordrecht winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Dordrecht goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
FC OSS goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dordrecht 57% versus FC OSS 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Dordrecht 60% | FC OSS 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dordrecht 1.52 xG and FC OSS 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dordrecht attack 1.005 / defence 0.710 | FC OSS attack 0.717 / defence 0.931. League average goals — home 1.619 / away 1.408. Dordrecht's defence rating of 0.710 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Dordrecht games / 72 FC OSS games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 17%. Fair-value odds: Dordrecht 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | FC OSS 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dordrecht (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Dordrecht at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.23 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Dordrecht 40% | FC OSS 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dordrecht vs FC OSS | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: M-Scores Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 19 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dordrecht 56% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 40% | xG Dordrecht 1.52 / FC OSS 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Dordrecht attack 1.005 / def 0.710 | FC OSS attack 0.717 / def 0.931 | league avg home 1.619 / away 1.408 • Poisson stance: Dordrecht (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Dordrecht xG
Expected Goals
0.72
FC OSS xG
40%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dordrecht vs FC OSS kick off?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 19 April 2024 at M-Scores Stadion.
What was the final score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Dordrecht 3 - 1 FC OSS.
Where is Dordrecht vs FC OSS being played?
The match is being played at M-Scores Stadion.
What competition is Dordrecht vs FC OSS part of?
Dordrecht vs FC OSS is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our statistical model gives Dordrecht a 56% chance of winning, FC OSS a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dordrecht the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Dordrecht and FC OSS will score (BTTS).
Will Dordrecht vs FC OSS have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Record (5 meetings): Dordrecht 3W | Draws 1 | FC OSS 1W.
What form are Dordrecht and FC OSS in?
Dordrecht (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-D-W-W-W. FC OSS (all comps): 5W-0D-5L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Dordrecht's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against FC OSS's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. Flip it around — FC OSS's attack (0.72x) against Dordrecht's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.8%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.2%), 2-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dordrecht Win
56%
1.78
27%
3.77
17%
5.77
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Dordrecht xG
Total xG
2.23
0.72
FC OSS xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
5.77
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
22%
4.55
Win to Nil
27%
3.64
4%
26.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.7 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 11.6 | 4.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.2 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Dordrecht and FC OSS expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Dordrecht and 0.72 for FC OSS, a combined total of 2.23.
How confident is the prediction model for Dordrecht vs FC OSS?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 72 outings, Dordrecht have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 26W 20D 26L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
FC OSS's form line: 20W 9D 43L from 72 games, 0.96 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L.
Put side by side, Dordrecht are the form team by 0.40 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against FC OSS.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Dordrecht have posted 1.61 PPG from 36 outings (16W 10D 10L).
On the road, FC OSS have gone 7W 6D 23L from 36 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dordrecht come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Dordrecht are averaging 1.49 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; FC OSS are on 1.01 scored and 1.85 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dordrecht
Current Season
FC OSS
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dordrecht and FC OSS in coming into this match?
Dordrecht have gone 26W 20D 26L in their last 72 games (1.36 PPG), while FC OSS have gone 20W 9D 43L in their last 72 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dordrecht at home or FC OSS away?
Dordrecht's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dordrecht at home: 1.61 PPG; FC OSS away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC OSS won 3-0 on 28 Aug 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dordrecht have gone 2W 3D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against FC OSS — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dordrecht
3
Draws
2
FC OSS
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
From 10 meetings on record, Dordrecht have won 5, FC OSS have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Dordrecht and FC OSS last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Dordrecht 2-2 FC OSS.
Who has won more matches between Dordrecht and FC OSS?
Dordrecht have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Dordrecht are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
FC OSS are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dordrecht 47%, FC OSS 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Dordrecht) and 53% (FC OSS). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 17% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dordrecht keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; FC OSS in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dordrecht home games / FC OSS away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dordrecht play FC OSS?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Dordrecht's recent matches and 42% of FC OSS's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dordrecht vs FC OSS usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Dordrecht's matches and 53% of FC OSS's.
Do Dordrecht and FC OSS tend to score early?
Dordrecht have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, FC OSS in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dordrecht cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC OSS.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dordrecht beat FC OSS 3-1 at M-Scores Stadion, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dordrecht 1.52 xG and FC OSS 0.72 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Dordrecht beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dordrecht attack 1.00 / defence 0.71 against FC OSS attack 0.72 / defence 0.93, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dordrecht 56% | Draw 27% | FC OSS 17%, with Dordrecht to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dordrecht 60%, FC OSS 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dordrecht's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
FC OSS's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Dordrecht arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.96. That form edge translated into the three points. Dordrecht (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.64 average — above their attacking norm. FC OSS (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.