Jong AZ 2-1 VVV Venlo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jong AZ at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
VVV Venlo make the trip to AFAS Trainingscomplex to face Jong AZ in Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35. The match kicks off on Monday 22 April 2024 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Jong AZ (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jong AZ have posted 6W 1D 3L at AFAS Trainingscomplex — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Jong AZ are significantly better at AFAS Trainingscomplex than their overall form suggests.
VVV Venlo have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Eerste Divisie outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
VVV Venlo's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 0.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Jong AZ, 0.90 for VVV Venlo — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Jong AZ, who have won 4 of the last 5 meetings against VVV Venlo — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Nov 2023, ended 2–2 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Jong AZ and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 3.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Jong AZ goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
VVV Venlo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Jong AZ 62% and VVV Venlo 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jong AZ 62% | VVV Venlo 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jong AZ 1.95 xG and VVV Venlo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jong AZ attack 1.223 / defence 0.919 | VVV Venlo attack 0.728 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.632 / away 1.405. Data: 72 Jong AZ games / 72 VVV Venlo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jong AZ 60% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 17%. Fair-value odds: Jong AZ 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | VVV Venlo 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Jong AZ (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.89. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.89 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jong AZ are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.89 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 55% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.4 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Jong AZ 60% | VVV Venlo 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: AFAS Trainingscomplex • Kick-off: Monday 22 Apr 2024, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jong AZ 60% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG Jong AZ 1.95 / VVV Venlo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Jong AZ attack 1.223 / def 0.919 | VVV Venlo attack 0.728 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.632 / away 1.405 • Poisson stance: Jong AZ (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Jong AZ xG
Expected Goals
0.94
VVV Venlo xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo kick off?
Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 22 April 2024 at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What was the final score in Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Jong AZ 2 - 1 VVV Venlo.
Where is Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo being played?
The match is being played at AFAS Trainingscomplex.
What competition is Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo part of?
Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our statistical model gives Jong AZ a 60% chance of winning, VVV Venlo a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Jong AZ the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jong AZ and VVV Venlo will score (BTTS).
Will Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and VVV Venlo?
Record (5 meetings): Jong AZ 4W | Draws 1 | VVV Venlo 0W.
What form are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo in?
Jong AZ (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. VVV Venlo (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Jong AZ's attack rating (1.22) and VVV Venlo's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — VVV Venlo's attack (0.73x) against Jong AZ's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 72/72 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jong AZ Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.35
17%
5.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Jong AZ xG
Total xG
2.89
0.94
VVV Venlo xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
5.95
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
39%
2.56
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
2%
41.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 10.8 | 10.2 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Jong AZ and 0.94 for VVV Venlo, a combined total of 2.89.
How confident is the prediction model for Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Jong AZ come into this having played 72 games, going 28W 16D 28L for 1.39 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, VVV Venlo sit at 1.39 PPG from 72 outings (26W 22D 24L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.39 PPG for Jong AZ against 1.39 for VVV Venlo. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Jong AZ's home form reads 19W 9D 8L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.83 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.39 PPG overall — Jong AZ are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, VVV Venlo have taken 1.22 points per game from 36 outings (11W 11D 14L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jong AZ come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Jong AZ are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; VVV Venlo are on 1.44 scored and 1.42 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Jong AZ have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; VVV Venlo in 67%.
Last 72 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jong AZ
Current Season
VVV Venlo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jong AZ and VVV Venlo in coming into this match?
Jong AZ have gone 28W 16D 28L in their last 72 games (1.39 PPG), while VVV Venlo have gone 26W 22D 24L in their last 72 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jong AZ at home or VVV Venlo away?
Jong AZ's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jong AZ at home: 1.83 PPG; VVV Venlo away: 1.22 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Eerste Divisie. They last met on 16 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Jong AZ won 3-0 on 3 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Jong AZ have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against VVV Venlo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Jong AZ
1
Draws
1
VVV Venlo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jong AZ and VVV Venlo?
From 10 meetings on record, Jong AZ have won 8, VVV Venlo have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jong AZ and VVV Venlo last play each other?
They last met on 16 January 2026, when VVV Venlo 1-3 Jong AZ.
Who has won more matches between Jong AZ and VVV Venlo?
Jong AZ have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Jong AZ are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
VVV Venlo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jong AZ 58%, VVV Venlo 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Jong AZ) and 56% (VVV Venlo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Jong AZ keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jong AZ home games / VVV Venlo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jong AZ play VVV Venlo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Jong AZ's games and 64% of VVV Venlo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jong AZ vs VVV Venlo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Jong AZ's matches and 56% of VVV Venlo's.
Do Jong AZ and VVV Venlo tend to score early?
Jong AZ have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, VVV Venlo in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jong AZ edge out VVV Venlo 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jong AZ beat VVV Venlo 2-1 at AFAS Trainingscomplex, Regular Season - 35, in the Eerste Divisie. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jong AZ 1.95 xG and VVV Venlo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.89. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jong AZ attack 1.22 / defence 0.92 against VVV Venlo attack 0.73 / defence 0.98, drawn from 72/72 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jong AZ 60% | Draw 23% | VVV Venlo 17%, with Jong AZ to win its most likely call at 60%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jong AZ 62%, VVV Venlo 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jong AZ's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
VVV Venlo's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jong AZ 1.39 PPG, VVV Venlo 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jong AZ win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.