Den Bosch 1-1 Cambuur – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Den Bosch at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Den Bosch vs Cambuur fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Eerste Divisie encounter, Regular Season - 36 sees Cambuur travel to De Vliert to take on Den Bosch. The game is scheduled for Friday 10 April 2026, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Eerste Divisie games this season, Den Bosch have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Den Bosch's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at De Vliert this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Cambuur — All Games: 6W 2D 2L from 10 Eerste Divisie fixtures this season — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.50. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Cambuur's away record: 7W 1D 2L from 10 road trips in Eerste Divisie this season (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Den Bosch 1.60 PPG, Cambuur 2.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Den Bosch register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Cambuur in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, Den Bosch have won 3, Cambuur 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Cambuur winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Den Bosch in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 51% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 49% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Cambuur in-play and half-time data (75 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 51% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Den Bosch 57% versus Cambuur 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Den Bosch 60% | Cambuur 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Den Bosch 1.59 xG and Cambuur 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Den Bosch attack 1.003 / defence 0.895 | Cambuur attack 1.145 / defence 0.989. League average goals — home 1.608 / away 1.486. Data: 72 Den Bosch games / 73 Cambuur games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Den Bosch 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 37%. Fair-value odds: Den Bosch 2.50 | Draw 4.17 | Cambuur 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.59 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Den Bosch as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Den Bosch offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.12 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Den Bosch 70% | Cambuur 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Den Bosch vs Cambuur | Competition: Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: De Vliert • Kick-off: Friday 10 Apr 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Den Bosch 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 62% | xG Den Bosch 1.59 / Cambuur 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Den Bosch attack 1.003 / def 0.895 | Cambuur attack 1.145 / def 0.989 | league avg home 1.608 / away 1.486 • Poisson stance: Den Bosch (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Den Bosch xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Cambuur xG
62%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Den Bosch vs Cambuur kick off?
Den Bosch vs Cambuur kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 10 April 2026 at De Vliert.
What was the final score in Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Den Bosch 1 - 1 Cambuur.
Where is Den Bosch vs Cambuur being played?
The match is being played at De Vliert.
What competition is Den Bosch vs Cambuur part of?
Den Bosch vs Cambuur is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Eerste Divisie (Netherlands).
Who is favourite to win Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our statistical model gives Den Bosch a 40% chance of winning, Cambuur a 37% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Den Bosch the favourite.
Will both teams score in Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Den Bosch and Cambuur will score (BTTS).
Will Den Bosch vs Cambuur have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Cambuur?
Record (7 meetings): Den Bosch 3W | Draws 1 | Cambuur 3W.
What form are Den Bosch and Cambuur in?
Den Bosch (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-W-W. Cambuur (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Den Bosch's attack rating (1.00) and Cambuur's defence rating (0.99), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cambuur's attack versus Den Bosch's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 72/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Den Bosch Win
40%
2.52
24%
4.21
37%
2.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Den Bosch xG
Total xG
3.12
1.52
Cambuur xG
2.52
40%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.73
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.60
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
20%
4.92
Win to Nil
9%
11.57
7%
13.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 6.7 | 5.1 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | 3.5 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Den Bosch and Cambuur expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Den Bosch and 1.52 for Cambuur, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Den Bosch vs Cambuur?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 75 outings, Den Bosch have picked up 1.45 PPG on a 30W 19D 26L record — D-L-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Cambuur's form line: 44W 14D 17L from 75 games, 1.95 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Cambuur are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Den Bosch.
Venue Form
On home soil, Den Bosch have posted 1.76 PPG from 37 outings (18W 11D 8L).
On the road, Cambuur have gone 21W 6D 10L from 37 away games — 1.86 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Den Bosch are averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Cambuur are on 1.80 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 75 Results — Eerste Divisie
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Den Bosch
Current Season
Cambuur
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Den Bosch and Cambuur in coming into this match?
Den Bosch have gone 30W 19D 26L in their last 75 games (1.45 PPG), while Cambuur have gone 44W 14D 17L in their last 75 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Den Bosch at home or Cambuur away?
Cambuur's away record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Den Bosch at home: 1.76 PPG; Cambuur away: 1.86 PPG.
Have Den Bosch or Cambuur been keeping clean sheets recently?
Den Bosch have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Cambuur in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. The pairing has crossed competitions too — Eerste Divisie, Eredivisie all feature in the head-to-head log. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Den Bosch's record when hosting Cambuur specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Den Bosch
2
Draws
3
Cambuur
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Den Bosch and Cambuur?
From 8 meetings on record, Den Bosch have won 3, Cambuur have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Den Bosch and Cambuur last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Den Bosch 1-1 Cambuur.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Den Bosch are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Cambuur are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Den Bosch 51%, Cambuur 49% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 49% (Den Bosch) and 51% (Cambuur).
On the defensive side: Den Bosch keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Cambuur in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Den Bosch home games / Cambuur away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Den Bosch play Cambuur?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 51% of Den Bosch's recent matches and 49% of Cambuur's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Den Bosch vs Cambuur usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 49% of Den Bosch's recent games and 51% of Cambuur's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Den Bosch and Cambuur tend to score early?
Den Bosch have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Cambuur in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Den Bosch and Cambuur share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Den Bosch and Cambuur finished level at 1-1 at De Vliert, Regular Season - 36, in the Eerste Divisie. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Den Bosch 1.59 xG and Cambuur 1.52 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Den Bosch attack 1.00 / defence 0.90 against Cambuur attack 1.15 / defence 0.99, drawn from 72/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Den Bosch 40% | Draw 24% | Cambuur 37%, with Den Bosch to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Den Bosch 60%, Cambuur 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Den Bosch's trading profile (75 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Cambuur's trading profile (75 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Cambuur arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cambuur (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.