Sudtirol 2-3 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 44% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Reggiana.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sudtirol and Reggiana meet at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 18). This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time.
Current Form
Sudtirol's record over their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L (1.00 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sudtirol at home: 4W 3D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Sudtirol are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Reggiana (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Reggiana's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 4L across their last 8 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.00 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Sudtirol — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 9 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Reggiana — key trading statistics (last 17 games, 8 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sudtirol 65% and Reggiana 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 53% | Reggiana 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.39 xG and Reggiana 1.04 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.939 / defence 1.044 | Reggiana attack 0.868 / defence 1.210. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.150. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.210 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Sudtirol's projected output up. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 55 games and Reggiana's last 17.
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.28 | Draw 3.49 | Reggiana 3.65. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sudtirol are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.43 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 50% (last 10 home games) | Reggiana 38% (last 8 away games).
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, matchday 18 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Sudtirol 1.39 / Reggiana 1.04 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.939 / def 1.044 | Reggiana attack 0.868 / def 1.210 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.04
Reggiana xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana FAQs
What time does Sudtirol vs Reggiana kick off?
Sudtirol vs Reggiana kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Sudtirol 2 - 3 Reggiana.
Where is Sudtirol vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Reggiana part of?
Sudtirol vs Reggiana is a Serie B fixture (matchday 18) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 44% chance of winning, Reggiana a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Sudtirol and Reggiana will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Sudtirol vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.94x league average) is weighed against Reggiana's defensive record (1.21x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.39. Flip it around — Reggiana's attack (0.87x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.04.
These ratings are built from Sudtirol's last 55 games and Reggiana's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
44%
2.28
29%
3.49
27%
3.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.43
1.04
Reggiana xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.65
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.03
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
35%
2.83
25%
3.99
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
7%
14.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 9.2 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.2 | 12.7 | 6.6 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.04 for Reggiana, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sudtirol come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 5D 7L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Reggiana sit at 1.00 PPG from 17 outings (3W 8D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for Sudtirol against 1.00 for Reggiana. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Sudtirol's home form reads 2W 3D 3L across their last 8 home games, a 1.12 PPG return.
Away from home, Reggiana have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 8 away games (2W 2D 4L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sudtirol are averaging 1.35 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.00 scored and 1.29 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sudtirol have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
Sudtirol (Home) vs Reggiana (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sudtirol
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana Form FAQs
What form are Sudtirol and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 5W 5D 7L in their last 17 games (1.18 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 3W 8D 6L in their last 17 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Reggiana away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.12 PPG; Reggiana away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to December 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent was on 3 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Sudtirol have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sudtirol won Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol on 3 Mar 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 2W 0D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Reggiana — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Sudtirol
1
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Reggiana?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, Sudtirol have won 4, Reggiana have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Reggiana last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 March 2026: Reggiana 0-4 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Reggiana?
Sudtirol have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 62%, Reggiana 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Sudtirol) and 62% (Reggiana). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 12% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sudtirol have failed to score in 38% of games; Reggiana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sudtirol vs Reggiana Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sudtirol and Reggiana matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 62% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 38% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sudtirol and Reggiana matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sudtirol's matches and 62% of Reggiana's.
Do Sudtirol and Reggiana matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 75% of Reggiana's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Sudtirol 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Sudtirol 2-3 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.39 xG and Reggiana 1.04 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Reggiana outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 0.94 / defence 1.04 against Reggiana attack 0.87 / defence 1.21, drawn from 55/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 44% | Draw 29% | Reggiana 27%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Reggiana win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 53%, Reggiana 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Reggiana's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sudtirol 1.18 PPG, Reggiana 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Sudtirol (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Reggiana (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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