Sampdoria 2-3 Feralpisalo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sampdoria at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris plays host to Sampdoria versus Feralpisalo in Serie B, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 23 December 2023 at 15:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sampdoria have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sampdoria, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sampdoria's home record at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.40 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris this season.
Feralpisalo's overall Serie B record this term: 1W 3D 6L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Feralpisalo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Feralpisalo's away record: 1W 2D 6L from 9 road trips in Serie B this season (0.56 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.30 in Sampdoria's favour (1.90 vs 0.60) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Trading & In-Play
Sampdoria — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Feralpisalo — key trading statistics (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sampdoria 65% versus Feralpisalo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sampdoria 47% | Feralpisalo 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sampdoria 1.65 xG and Feralpisalo 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sampdoria attack 0.985 / defence 1.005 | Feralpisalo attack 0.739 / defence 1.375. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.150. Feralpisalo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.375 — this is suppressing Sampdoria's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 17 Sampdoria games / 17 Feralpisalo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sampdoria 56% | Draw 26% | Feralpisalo 19%. Fair-value odds: Sampdoria 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Feralpisalo 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sampdoria (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sampdoria are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Sampdoria 60% | Feralpisalo 56%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Dec 2023, 15:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sampdoria 56% | Draw 26% | Feralpisalo 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Sampdoria 1.65 / Feralpisalo 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Sampdoria attack 0.985 / def 1.005 | Feralpisalo attack 0.739 / def 1.375 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.150 • Poisson stance: Sampdoria (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Sampdoria xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Feralpisalo xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo kick off?
Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo kicked off at 15:15 on Saturday 23 December 2023 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What was the final score in Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo?
Sampdoria 2 - 3 Feralpisalo.
Where is Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris.
What competition is Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo part of?
Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo?
Our statistical model gives Sampdoria a 56% chance of winning, Feralpisalo a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Sampdoria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Sampdoria and Feralpisalo will score (BTTS).
Will Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Feralpisalo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sampdoria and Feralpisalo in?
Sampdoria (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Feralpisalo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sampdoria's attack at 0.98x the league average against Feralpisalo's defence at 1.38x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Feralpisalo's attack (0.74x) against Sampdoria's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.0%), 2-0 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sampdoria Win
56%
1.80
26%
3.86
19%
5.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Sampdoria xG
Total xG
2.51
0.85
Feralpisalo xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
5.39
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
19%
5.22
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
4%
28.14
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.5 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 5.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Sampdoria and Feralpisalo expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Sampdoria and 0.85 for Feralpisalo, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sampdoria's recent record stands at 7W 3D 7L from 17 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Sampdoria is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Feralpisalo, meanwhile, have gone 2W 4D 11L across 17 games — 0.59 PPG, with D-L-L-L-W in their last five. The sample for Feralpisalo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sampdoria by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Feralpisalo heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Sampdoria have managed 4W 0D 4L from 8 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Feralpisalo's away record stands at 1W 2D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.62 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sampdoria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sampdoria are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Feralpisalo are on 0.71 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sampdoria have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sampdoria
Blended
Feralpisalo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sampdoria and Feralpisalo in coming into this match?
Sampdoria have gone 7W 3D 7L in their last 17 games (1.41 PPG), while Feralpisalo have gone 2W 4D 11L in their last 17 (0.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sampdoria at home or Feralpisalo away?
Sampdoria's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sampdoria at home: 1.50 PPG; Feralpisalo away: 0.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 March 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Sampdoria
0
Draws
1
Feralpisalo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sampdoria and Feralpisalo?
From 2 meetings on record, Sampdoria have won 1, Feralpisalo have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Sampdoria and Feralpisalo last play each other?
They last met on 3 March 2024, when Feralpisalo 1-3 Sampdoria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sampdoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sampdoria 50%, Feralpisalo 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Sampdoria and 75% for Feralpisalo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 0% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sampdoria keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Feralpisalo in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sampdoria home games / Feralpisalo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sampdoria play Feralpisalo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Sampdoria's games and 62% of Feralpisalo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sampdoria vs Feralpisalo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Sampdoria's matches and 75% of Feralpisalo's.
Do Sampdoria and Feralpisalo tend to score early?
Sampdoria have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Feralpisalo in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Feralpisalo defy the odds to beat Sampdoria 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Sampdoria 2-3 at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sampdoria 1.65 xG and Feralpisalo 0.85 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Feralpisalo outscored their 0.85 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sampdoria attack 0.98 / defence 1.00 against Feralpisalo attack 0.74 / defence 1.38, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sampdoria 56% | Draw 26% | Feralpisalo 19%, with Sampdoria to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Feralpisalo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sampdoria 47%, Feralpisalo 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sampdoria's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Feralpisalo's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sampdoria arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.59. Form was overturned, with Feralpisalo winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Sampdoria (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.