Sudtirol 0-1 Cosenza – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 42% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Sudtirol face Cosenza.

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Match Analysis

Sudtirol host Cosenza at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 13:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Sudtirol — last 10 games: 2W 2D 6L, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: W L L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.

Sudtirol at home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Cosenza stand at 2W 3D 5L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

When travelling, Cosenza have posted 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Sudtirol) versus 0.90 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Sudtirol have won 0, Cosenza 0, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 16 Sep 2023, ended Sudtirol 2–2 Cosenza — a draw.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Sudtirol in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 56%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Cosenza in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 27% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 51% versus Cosenza 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 34% | Cosenza 38%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Sudtirol surrender their half-time lead 38% of the time, while Cosenza have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Cosenza surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Sudtirol recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 56% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.05 xG and Cosenza 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.892 / defence 1.038 | Cosenza attack 0.574 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.211. Cosenza's attack rating of 0.574 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.72. Data: built from Sudtirol's last 59 games and Cosenza's last 59.

Result probabilities: Sudtirol 42% | Draw 35% | Cosenza 23%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.41 | Draw 2.84 | Cosenza 4.29. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 35% | Total xG 1.77. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.77 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Cosenza's lower xG of 0.72 gives a real chance they fail to score.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Sudtirol at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 1.77 combined xG gives a 74% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sudtirol's last 10 home games and Cosenza's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Sudtirol 60% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 20% (last 10 away games).

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