Cosenza 1-1 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Pisa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Pisa in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Saturday 3 February 2024 at 13:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Pisa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pisa's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for Cosenza, 1.30 for Pisa — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Cosenza 2W, Pisa 2W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Sep 2023, ended 2–1 with Cosenza winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Pisa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (60 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 47% versus Pisa 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 37% | Pisa 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.44 xG and Pisa 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.117 / defence 1.054 | Pisa attack 0.978 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.206. Data: 60 Cosenza games / 60 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 27% | Pisa 32%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.44 | Draw 3.70 | Pisa 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 70% | Pisa 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Feb 2024, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 41% | Draw 27% | Pisa 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 55% | xG Cosenza 1.44 / Pisa 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.117 / def 1.054 | Pisa attack 0.978 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Pisa xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Pisa kick off?
Cosenza vs Pisa kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 3 February 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Pisa.
Where is Cosenza vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Pisa part of?
Cosenza vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 41% chance of winning, Pisa a 32% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Cosenza and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
Record (5 meetings): Cosenza 2W | Draws 1 | Pisa 2W.
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in?
Cosenza (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-L-W-W. Pisa (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.12x the league average against Pisa's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Pisa's attack (0.98x) against Cosenza's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
41%
2.44
27%
3.72
32%
3.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.68
1.24
Pisa xG
2.44
41%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
3.11
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.21
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
8%
13.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.3 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cosenza and 1.24 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza's recent record stands at 15W 20D 25L from 60 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Pisa, meanwhile, have gone 17W 22D 21L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-D-W-L in their last five. The sample for Pisa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Cosenza against 1.22 for Pisa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 11W 10D 9L from 30 games — 1.43 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Pisa's away record stands at 8W 12D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.88 goals scored and 1.28 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.22 scored and 1.15 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Pisa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Pisa in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 15W 20D 25L in their last 60 games (1.08 PPG), while Pisa have gone 17W 22D 21L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Pisa away?
Cosenza's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.43 PPG; Pisa away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Pisa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Pisa in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since December 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Pisa won 0-3 on 29 Mar 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Pisa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cosenza
3
Draws
3
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Pisa?
From 8 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 2, Pisa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 29 March 2025, when Cosenza 0-3 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Pisa?
Pisa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Pisa see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 57%, Pisa 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Cosenza) and 37% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Pisa in 37%; Pisa in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Pisa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Cosenza's recent matches and 50% of Pisa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Cosenza's recent games and 37% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Pisa tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Pisa in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Pisa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 23, as Cosenza and Pisa drew 1-1 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.44 xG and Pisa 1.24 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.12 / defence 1.05 against Pisa attack 0.98 / defence 0.95, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 41% | Draw 27% | Pisa 32%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 37%, Pisa 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Pisa's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.08 PPG, Pisa 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.