Sudtirol vs Carrarese – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sudtirol host Carrarese at Stadio Marco Druso in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 December 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sudtirol — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 2W 7D 1L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Carrarese stand at 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sudtirol at 1.40 PPG versus Carrarese's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Sudtirol, 1 for Carrarese and 3 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sudtirol trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Carrarese trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 50% versus Carrarese 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sudtirol 33% | Carrarese 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.12 xG and Carrarese 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 0.809 / defence 0.780 | Carrarese attack 0.815 / defence 1.055. League average goals — home 1.312 / away 1.233. Sudtirol's defence rating of 0.780 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 Sudtirol games / 48 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 41% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 24%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.44 | Draw 2.86 | Carrarese 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sudtirol offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 39% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sudtirol 50% | Carrarese 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Dec 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 41% | Draw 35% | Carrarese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 39% | xG Sudtirol 1.12 / Carrarese 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 0.809 / def 0.780 | Carrarese attack 0.815 / def 1.055 | league avg home 1.312 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Carrarese xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Carrarese kick off?
Sudtirol vs Carrarese is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Sunday 27 December 2026 at Stadio Marco Druso.
Where is Sudtirol vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Carrarese part of?
Sudtirol vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 41% chance of winning, Carrarese a 24% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Sudtirol and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
Record (4 meetings): Sudtirol 0W | Draws 3 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Carrarese in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Sudtirol's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.05x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, Carrarese's attack versus Sudtirol's defence, projects 0.78 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
41%
2.42
35%
2.85
24%
4.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
1.90
0.78
Carrarese xG
2.42
41%
Home win
2.85
35%
Draw
4.25
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
8%
13.03
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 11.7 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Sudtirol and 0.78 for Carrarese, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 48 outings, Sudtirol have picked up 1.10 PPG on a 10W 23D 15L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese's form line: 13W 15D 20L from 48 games, 1.12 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-L. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sudtirol on 1.10 PPG, Carrarese on 1.12. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Sudtirol have posted 1.25 PPG from 24 outings (6W 12D 6L).
On the road, Carrarese have gone 4W 7D 13L from 24 away games — 0.79 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sudtirol are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 1.17 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 48 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 10W 23D 15L in their last 48 games (1.10 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 13W 15D 20L in their last 48 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Carrarese away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.25 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Sudtirol's record when hosting Carrarese specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Sudtirol
3
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
From 4 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 0, Carrarese have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Carrarese 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Carrarese?
Carrarese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sudtirol see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 50%, Carrarese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Sudtirol) and 54% (Carrarese).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sudtirol have failed to score in 38% of games; Carrarese in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 58% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Sudtirol's recent games and 54% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Carrarese tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.