Sudtirol 1-1 Brescia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sudtirol at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sudtirol vs Brescia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Marco Druso plays host to Sudtirol versus Brescia in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Tuesday 28 November 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sudtirol have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sudtirol, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sudtirol at Stadio Marco Druso this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Sudtirol are significantly better at Stadio Marco Druso than their overall form suggests.
Brescia (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 0.90 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Sudtirol, 1 for Brescia and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.5 per game from 2 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Jan 2023, ended 1–0 with Sudtirol winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Sudtirol goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Brescia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (53 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sudtirol 47% versus Brescia 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sudtirol 32% | Brescia 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sudtirol 1.27 xG and Brescia 1.12 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sudtirol attack 1.140 / defence 1.073 | Brescia attack 0.885 / defence 0.998. League average goals — home 1.117 / away 1.186. Data: 51 Sudtirol games / 51 Brescia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sudtirol 38% | Draw 31% | Brescia 31%. Fair-value odds: Sudtirol 2.63 | Draw 3.23 | Brescia 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sudtirol as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sudtirol if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sudtirol 50% | Brescia 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sudtirol vs Brescia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio Marco Druso • Kick-off: Tuesday 28 Nov 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sudtirol 38% | Draw 31% | Brescia 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 50% | xG Sudtirol 1.27 / Brescia 1.12 • Poisson strength factors: Sudtirol attack 1.140 / def 1.073 | Brescia attack 0.885 / def 0.998 | league avg home 1.117 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Sudtirol (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sudtirol xG
Expected Goals
1.12
Brescia xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sudtirol vs Brescia kick off?
Sudtirol vs Brescia kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 28 November 2023 at Stadio Marco Druso.
What was the final score in Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Sudtirol 1 - 1 Brescia.
Where is Sudtirol vs Brescia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Marco Druso.
What competition is Sudtirol vs Brescia part of?
Sudtirol vs Brescia is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our statistical model gives Sudtirol a 38% chance of winning, Brescia a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sudtirol the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Sudtirol and Brescia will score (BTTS).
Will Sudtirol vs Brescia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Brescia?
Record (2 meetings): Sudtirol 1W | Draws 0 | Brescia 1W.
What form are Sudtirol and Brescia in?
Sudtirol (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Brescia (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sudtirol's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Brescia's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.27. Flip it around — Brescia's attack (0.89x) against Sudtirol's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.12.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 1-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sudtirol Win
38%
2.64
31%
3.19
31%
3.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sudtirol xG
Total xG
2.40
1.12
Brescia xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.19
31%
Draw
3.25
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
32%
3.08
28%
3.56
Win to Nil
12%
8.14
9%
11.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 10.3 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.0 | 7.3 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Sudtirol and Brescia expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sudtirol and 1.12 for Brescia, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Sudtirol vs Brescia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sudtirol's recent record stands at 20W 20D 13L from 53 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Sudtirol is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia, meanwhile, have gone 12W 19D 22L across 53 games — 1.04 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sudtirol by 0.47 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Brescia heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sudtirol have managed 10W 12D 4L from 26 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Brescia's away record stands at 5W 9D 12L across 26 trips, a 0.92 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sudtirol come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sudtirol are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Brescia are on 0.89 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Defensively: Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sudtirol
Blended
Brescia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sudtirol and Brescia in coming into this match?
Sudtirol have gone 20W 20D 13L in their last 53 games (1.51 PPG), while Brescia have gone 12W 19D 22L in their last 53 (1.04 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sudtirol at home or Brescia away?
Sudtirol's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sudtirol at home: 1.62 PPG; Brescia away: 0.92 PPG.
Have Sudtirol or Brescia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sudtirol have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Brescia in 23%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sudtirol have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Brescia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Sudtirol
3
Draws
2
Brescia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sudtirol and Brescia?
From 6 meetings on record, Sudtirol have won 1, Brescia have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sudtirol and Brescia last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Sudtirol.
Who has won more matches between Sudtirol and Brescia?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sudtirol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sudtirol 58%, Brescia 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Sudtirol) and 42% (Brescia).
On the defensive side: Sudtirol keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Brescia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sudtirol home games / Brescia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sudtirol play Brescia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Sudtirol's recent matches and 46% of Brescia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sudtirol vs Brescia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Sudtirol's recent games and 42% of Brescia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sudtirol and Brescia tend to score early?
Sudtirol have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Brescia in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sudtirol and Brescia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sudtirol and Brescia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio Marco Druso, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sudtirol 1.27 xG and Brescia 1.12 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sudtirol attack 1.14 / defence 1.07 against Brescia attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sudtirol 38% | Draw 31% | Brescia 31%, with Sudtirol to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sudtirol 32%, Brescia 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sudtirol's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Brescia's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sudtirol arrived the stronger side — 1.51 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.