Cosenza 1-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off: Tuesday 29 August 2023 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 6D 2L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cosenza have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Modena (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: L D L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Modena's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.20 for Cosenza, 1.30 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Cosenza, 1 for Modena and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Jan 2023, ended 0–2 with Modena winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cosenza half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Modena half-time and goal-timing data (39 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 51% versus Modena 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cosenza 36% | Modena 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.60 xG and Modena 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 1.144 / defence 0.850 | Modena attack 0.984 / defence 1.166. League average goals — home 1.203 / away 1.035. Data: 40 Cosenza games / 39 Modena games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cosenza 53% | Draw 28% | Modena 19%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Modena 5.26. Cosenza hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cosenza at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.47 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 30% | Modena 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Tuesday 29 Aug 2023, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 53% | Draw 28% | Modena 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Cosenza 1.60 / Modena 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 1.144 / def 0.850 | Modena attack 0.984 / def 1.166 | league avg home 1.203 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Modena xG
48%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Modena kick off?
Cosenza vs Modena kicked off at 19:30 on Tuesday 29 August 2023 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Modena?
Cosenza 1 - 2 Modena.
Where is Cosenza vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Modena part of?
Cosenza vs Modena is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 53% chance of winning, Modena a 19% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Cosenza and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Modena?
Record (2 meetings): Cosenza 1W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Modena in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Modena (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 1.14x the league average against Modena's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Modena's attack (0.98x) against Cosenza's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (40/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 2-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
53%
1.87
28%
3.60
19%
5.31
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.47
0.86
Modena xG
1.87
53%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
5.31
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
42%
2.38
20%
4.97
Win to Nil
22%
4.45
4%
26.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.6 | 11.8 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.9 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.86 for Modena, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 39 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.08 PPG on a 9W 15D 15L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Cosenza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Modena's form line: 14W 9D 16L from 39 games, 1.31 PPG, last five L-D-L-W-W. It's still early in the season for Modena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for Cosenza against 1.31 for Modena. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.63 PPG from 19 outings (8W 7D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — Cosenza are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Modena have gone 6W 1D 12L from 19 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.23 scored and 1.36 conceded.
Last 39 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Early Season
Modena
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Modena in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 9W 15D 15L in their last 39 games (1.08 PPG), while Modena have gone 14W 9D 16L in their last 39 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Modena away?
Cosenza's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.63 PPG; Modena away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 2 March 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cosenza have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Modena — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Cosenza
3
Draws
2
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Modena have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 2 March 2025, when Modena 1-1 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Modena?
Modena have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 53%, Modena 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Cosenza) and 63% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Modena in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Cosenza's games and 58% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Cosenza's recent games and 63% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Modena tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Modena in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Modena defy the odds to beat Cosenza 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Modena beat Cosenza 1-2 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.60 xG and Modena 0.86 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Modena outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 1.14 / defence 0.85 against Modena attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 40/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 53% | Draw 28% | Modena 19%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Modena win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 36%, Modena 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Modena's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.08 PPG, Modena 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Modena win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.