Reggiana 1-0 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Modena at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Reggiana vs Modena fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Reggiana host Modena at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B, Regular Season - 36. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Reggiana — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Reggiana at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Modena have gone 0W 7D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggiana 1.30 PPG, Modena 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Reggiana have won 0, Modena 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 1–2 with Modena winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Reggiana in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Modena in-play and half-time data (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 51% versus Modena 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 40% | Modena 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.77 xG and Modena 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.609 / defence 1.332 | Modena attack 0.913 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.189. Reggiana's attack strength of 0.609 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 35 Reggiana games / 73 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Reggiana 18% | Draw 31% | Modena 51%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 5.56 | Draw 3.23 | Modena 1.96. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Reggiana 50% | Modena 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Reggiana vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 36 | Venue: MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 May 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Reggiana 18% | Draw 31% | Modena 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Reggiana 0.77 / Modena 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Reggiana attack 0.609 / def 1.332 | Modena attack 0.913 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.226 / away 1.189 • Poisson stance: Modena (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Reggiana xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Modena xG
43%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Reggiana vs Modena kick off?
Reggiana vs Modena kicked off at 17:00 on Wednesday 1 May 2024 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What was the final score in Reggiana vs Modena?
Reggiana 1 - 0 Modena.
Where is Reggiana vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore.
What competition is Reggiana vs Modena part of?
Reggiana vs Modena is a Regular Season - 36 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Reggiana vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Reggiana a 18% chance of winning, Modena a 51% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Modena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Reggiana vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Reggiana and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Reggiana vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Modena?
Record (1 meetings): Reggiana 0W | Draws 0 | Modena 1W.
What form are Reggiana and Modena in?
Reggiana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-L-W. Modena (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Reggiana's attacking strength (0.61x league average) is weighed against Modena's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.77. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Reggiana's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 35/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Modena Win
18%
5.53
31%
3.24
51%
1.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
11.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Reggiana xG
Total xG
2.22
1.45
Modena xG
5.53
18%
Home win
3.24
31%
Draw
1.96
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.31
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
24%
4.25
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
4%
23.50
24%
4.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 15.7 | 11.4 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.4 | 12.2 | 8.8 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Reggiana vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Reggiana and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Reggiana and 1.45 for Modena, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Reggiana vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Reggiana come into this having played 35 games, going 9W 16D 10L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-W.
On the other side, Modena sit at 1.23 PPG from 35 outings (9W 16D 10L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Reggiana on 1.23 PPG, Modena on 1.23. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Reggiana's home form reads 2W 10D 5L across 17 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Modena have taken 1.18 points per game from 17 outings (3W 11D 3L).
Goals in Recent Form
Reggiana are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.23 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.09 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Modena in 60%.
Last 35 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Reggiana
Current Season
Modena
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Reggiana and Modena in coming into this match?
Reggiana have gone 9W 16D 10L in their last 35 games (1.23 PPG), while Modena have gone 9W 16D 10L in their last 35 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Reggiana at home or Modena away?
Modena's away record (1.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Reggiana at home: 0.94 PPG; Modena away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 1 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Reggiana's record when hosting Modena specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Reggiana
0
Draws
3
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Reggiana and Modena?
From 6 meetings on record, Reggiana have won 3, Modena have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Reggiana and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 1 May 2026, when Modena 2-1 Reggiana.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Reggiana see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Modena see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Reggiana 59%, Modena 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Reggiana) and 47% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Reggiana have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Reggiana home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Reggiana play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Reggiana's games and 71% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Reggiana vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Reggiana's recent games and 47% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Reggiana defy the odds to beat Modena 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Reggiana beat Modena 1-0 at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore, Regular Season - 36, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Reggiana 0.77 xG and Modena 1.45 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Modena landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Reggiana attack 0.61 / defence 1.33 against Modena attack 0.91 / defence 1.04, drawn from 35/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Reggiana 18% | Draw 31% | Modena 51%, with Modena to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Reggiana win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Reggiana 40%, Modena 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Reggiana's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
Modena's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Reggiana 1.23 PPG, Modena 1.23 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Reggiana win broke the near-deadlock. Reggiana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line. Modena (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.