Reggiana 1-0 Modena – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Modena at 51% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Reggiana face Modena.

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Match Analysis

Reggiana host Modena at MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore in Serie B (matchday 36). Kick-off is Wednesday 1 May 2024 at 18:00 UK time.

Form Guide

Reggiana — last 10 games: 3W 4D 3L, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L L L W. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.

Reggiana at home: 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.30 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.

Looking at their last 10 matches, Modena stand at 1W 6D 3L — 0.90 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

On the road, Modena have gone 0W 7D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Reggiana 1.30 PPG, Modena 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Reggiana have won 0, Modena 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 3.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 2 Dec 2023, ended Reggiana 1–2 Modena — a Modena win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Reggiana in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 17 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

Modena in-play and half-time data (last 35 games, 17 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Reggiana 51% versus Modena 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Reggiana 40% | Modena 43%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Reggiana surrender their half-time lead 43% of the time, while Modena have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 30% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Reggiana 0.77 xG and Modena 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Reggiana attack 0.609 / defence 1.332 | Modena attack 0.913 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.226 / away 1.189. Reggiana's attack rating of 0.609 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.77. Reggiana's defence rating of 1.332 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Modena's projected output up. Data: built from Reggiana's last 35 games and Modena's last 73.

Result probabilities: Reggiana 18% | Draw 31% | Modena 51%. Fair-value odds: Reggiana 5.53 | Draw 3.24 | Modena 1.96. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Modena as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Modena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.22 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Reggiana 50% (last 10 home games) | Modena 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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