Pisa 1-4 Virtus Entella – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pisa at 37%, yet in-form Virtus Entella provide a compelling counter-argument — this Pisa vs Virtus Entella fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Pisa and Virtus Entella meet at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani in Serie B, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Friday 11 September 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 0D 8L from 10 games (0.60 PPG). Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Pisa have posted 2W 0D 8L at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Virtus Entella have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Virtus Entella have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Virtus Entella away from home this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Virtus Entella are 0.60 PPG clear of Pisa in recent Serie B fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
Virtus Entella half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 42% versus Virtus Entella 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 54% | Virtus Entella 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.07 xG and Virtus Entella 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.774 / defence 1.081 | Virtus Entella attack 0.778 / defence 0.997. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Pisa's attack strength of 0.774 is below the league average — the 1.07 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 3 Pisa games / 41 Virtus Entella games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pisa 37% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 32%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 2.70 | Draw 3.33 | Virtus Entella 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pisa are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Virtus Entella (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pisa if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.05 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 34% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Virtus Entella 20% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pisa vs Virtus Entella | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani • Kick-off: Friday 11 Sep 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pisa 37% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Pisa 1.07 / Virtus Entella 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Pisa attack 0.774 / def 1.081 | Virtus Entella attack 0.778 / def 0.997 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Pisa (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Pisa xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Virtus Entella xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pisa vs Virtus Entella kick off?
Pisa vs Virtus Entella kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 11 September 2026 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What was the final score in Pisa vs Virtus Entella?
Pisa 1 - 4 Virtus Entella.
Where is Pisa vs Virtus Entella being played?
The match is being played at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani.
What competition is Pisa vs Virtus Entella part of?
Pisa vs Virtus Entella is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Pisa vs Virtus Entella?
Our statistical model gives Pisa a 37% chance of winning, Virtus Entella a 32% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pisa vs Virtus Entella?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Pisa and Virtus Entella will score (BTTS).
Will Pisa vs Virtus Entella have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Virtus Entella?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Pisa and Virtus Entella in?
Pisa (all comps): 2W-0D-8L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Virtus Entella (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Pisa's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Virtus Entella's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. Flip it around — Virtus Entella's attack (0.78x) against Pisa's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 3/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.7%), 1-0 (12.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
37%
2.67
30%
3.29
32%
3.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Pisa xG
Total xG
2.05
0.97
Virtus Entella xG
2.67
37%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.10
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.69
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
14%
7.08
11%
9.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.1 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.9 | 13.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.2 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pisa vs Virtus Entella?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Pisa and Virtus Entella expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Pisa and 0.97 for Virtus Entella, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Pisa vs Virtus Entella?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pisa's recent record stands at 4W 12D 25L from 41 games, a 0.59 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Pisa, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Virtus Entella, meanwhile, have gone 10W 13D 18L across 41 games — 1.05 PPG, with L-W-L-L-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Virtus Entella, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Virtus Entella by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Pisa heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Pisa have managed 3W 4D 13L from 20 games — 0.65 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Virtus Entella's away record stands at 1W 5D 14L across 20 trips, a 0.40 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.05 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Virtus Entella's season.
Attack vs Defence
Pisa are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Virtus Entella are on 0.95 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pisa
Early Season
Virtus Entella
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pisa and Virtus Entella in coming into this match?
Pisa have gone 4W 12D 25L in their last 41 games (0.59 PPG), while Virtus Entella have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pisa at home or Virtus Entella away?
Pisa's home record (0.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pisa at home: 0.65 PPG; Virtus Entella away: 0.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 11 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Pisa
0
Draws
1
Virtus Entella
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pisa and Virtus Entella?
From 1 meetings on record, Pisa have won 0, Virtus Entella have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Pisa and Virtus Entella last play each other?
They last met on 11 September 2026, when Pisa 1-4 Virtus Entella.
Who has won more matches between Pisa and Virtus Entella?
Virtus Entella have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pisa see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Virtus Entella are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 35% (Pisa) and 35% (Virtus Entella) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 40% for Pisa and 30% for Virtus Entella.
On the defensive side: Pisa have failed to score in 60% of games; Virtus Entella in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pisa home games / Virtus Entella away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pisa play Virtus Entella?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Pisa's recent matches and 35% of Virtus Entella's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pisa vs Virtus Entella usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Pisa's recent games and 30% of Virtus Entella's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pisa and Virtus Entella tend to score early?
Pisa have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Virtus Entella in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Virtus Entella run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Pisa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Virtus Entella beat Pisa 1-4 at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pisa 1.07 xG and Virtus Entella 0.97 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Virtus Entella outscored their 0.97 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pisa attack 0.77 / defence 1.08 against Virtus Entella attack 0.78 / defence 1.00, drawn from 3/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pisa 37% | Draw 30% | Virtus Entella 32%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Virtus Entella win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pisa 54%, Virtus Entella 39%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pisa's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Virtus Entella's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Virtus Entella arrived the stronger side — 1.05 PPG against 0.59. That form edge translated into the three points. Pisa (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.35 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Virtus Entella (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 0.45 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.