Pisa vs Modena – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates Modena at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pisa vs Modena encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Full Analysis

Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani plays host to Pisa versus Modena in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Tuesday 24 November 2026 at 14:00 UTC.

Current Form

Pisa's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Pisa have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Pisa at Arena Garibaldi - Stadio Romeo Anconetani this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 home games — 0.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Modena have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L D W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Modena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Modena's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

A near-identical PPG reading — 1.30 for Pisa, 1.60 for Modena — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.

In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Pisa have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Modena in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.

Head-to-Head

Modena hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 6 meetings. The hosts have won just 1 times in that span.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 2.8 per game across 6 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 5 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Modena winning.

The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Modena have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 2.8 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.

Trading

Pisa half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 46% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 49% of games.

Modena half-time and goal-timing data (45 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pisa 44% versus Modena 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pisa 58% | Modena 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Pisa 1.29 xG and Modena 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pisa attack 0.989 / defence 1.314 | Modena attack 1.103 / defence 0.968. League average goals — home 1.343 / away 1.271. Data: 7 Pisa games / 45 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Pisa 26% | Draw 25% | Modena 49%. Fair-value odds: Pisa 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Modena 2.04. Modena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.29 / 1.84) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Modena are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Modena if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 3.13 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 60% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Pisa 60% | Modena 70% BTTS from recent games.

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