Palermo 2-0 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palermo vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 15 as Palermo welcome Spezia to Stadio Renzo Barbera. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Palermo — All Games: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D L D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Palermo have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Across all Serie B games this season, Spezia have recorded 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.40. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Spezia have gone 2W 7D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Spezia — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.20 vs 1.40). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Palermo have won 0, Spezia 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Spezia winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Palermo trading profile (52 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Spezia trading profile (52 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 54% versus Spezia 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 48% | Spezia 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 0.67 xG and Spezia 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.785 / defence 0.875 | Spezia attack 1.066 / defence 0.726. League average goals — home 1.171 / away 1.095. Palermo's attack strength of 0.785 is below the league average — the 0.67 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Spezia's defence strength of 0.726 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 52 Palermo games / 52 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 21% | Draw 39% | Spezia 40%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 4.76 | Draw 2.56 | Spezia 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 39% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 24% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 1.69. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 76% probability — total xG of 1.69 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Palermo's lower xG of 0.67 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Spezia at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 39% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Spezia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.69 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 24% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 34% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 40% | Spezia 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 21% | Draw 39% | Spezia 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 24% | BTTS 34% | xG Palermo 0.67 / Spezia 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.785 / def 0.875 | Spezia attack 1.066 / def 0.726 | league avg home 1.171 / away 1.095 • Poisson stance: Spezia (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.67
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Spezia xG
34%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
24%
Over 2.5
9%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Spezia kick off?
Palermo vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 1 December 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Spezia?
Palermo 2 - 0 Spezia.
Where is Palermo vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Spezia part of?
Palermo vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 21% chance of winning, Spezia a 40% chance, and a 39% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both Palermo and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 24%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Spezia?
Record (2 meetings): Palermo 0W | Draws 1 | Spezia 1W.
What form are Palermo and Spezia in?
Palermo (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-L-D-D. Spezia (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Palermo's attacking strength (0.79x league average) is weighed against Spezia's defensive record (0.73x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.67. The same calculation in reverse, Spezia's attack versus Palermo's defence, projects 1.02 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 20.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (17.2%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
21%
4.87
39%
2.55
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.9%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
18.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.67
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.69
1.02
Spezia xG
4.87
21%
Home win
2.55
39%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
50%
Over 1.5
2.00
50%
Under 1.5
2.00
24%
Over 2.5
4.17
76%
Under 2.5
1.32
9%
Over 3.5
11.11
91%
Under 3.5
1.10
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.94
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
36%
2.78
51%
1.95
Win to Nil
7%
13.51
21%
4.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.5 | 18.9 | 9.6 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.6 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 20.1%.
How many goals are Palermo and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.67 expected goals for Palermo and 1.02 for Spezia, a combined total of 1.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palermo come into this having played 52 games, going 18W 16D 18L for 1.35 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-D-D. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 1.42 PPG from 52 outings (17W 23D 12L), a run that reads D-D-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Palermo on 1.35 PPG, Spezia on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palermo's home form reads 9W 7D 10L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.12 points per game from 26 outings (5W 14D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Palermo are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.12 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Spezia in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 18W 16D 18L in their last 52 games (1.35 PPG), while Spezia have gone 17W 23D 12L in their last 52 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Spezia away?
Palermo's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.31 PPG; Spezia away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Palermo or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palermo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Spezia in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palermo and Spezia runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 18 January 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Palermo's record when hosting Spezia specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Spezia?
From 6 meetings on record, Palermo have won 3, Spezia have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Spezia?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 50%, Spezia 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Palermo) and 50% (Spezia).
On the defensive side: Spezia in 31%; Palermo have failed to score in 31% of games; Spezia in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 50% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Palermo's recent games and 50% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Spezia tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Spezia in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palermo cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Spezia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Spezia 2-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.67 xG and Spezia 1.02 xG, a combined 1.69. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Palermo beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Spezia landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.79 / defence 0.88 against Spezia attack 1.07 / defence 0.73, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 21% | Draw 39% | Spezia 40%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 40%. Instead the game produced a Palermo win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 24%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 48%, Spezia 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Spezia's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.35 PPG, Spezia 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Spezia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.