Palermo 1-0 Bari – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Palermo take on Bari.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Bari make the trip to Stadio Renzo Barbera to face Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Thursday 26 December 2024 at 17:00 UTC.
Current Form
Palermo's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palermo's home record at Stadio Renzo Barbera: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Bari (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: W D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Bari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bari's away record: 3W 5D 2L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.40 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Palermo, 0 for Bari and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 4 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Feb 2024, ended 3–0 with Palermo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Bari goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palermo 53% versus Bari 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palermo 50% | Bari 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palermo 0.88 xG and Bari 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palermo attack 0.860 / defence 0.924 | Bari attack 0.904 / defence 0.819. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.059. Data: 56 Palermo games / 56 Bari games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palermo 31% | Draw 37% | Bari 32%. Fair-value odds: Palermo 3.23 | Draw 2.70 | Bari 3.12. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Palermo 30% | Bari 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palermo vs Bari | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Renzo Barbera • Kick-off: Thursday 26 Dec 2024, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palermo 31% | Draw 37% | Bari 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 36% | xG Palermo 0.88 / Bari 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Palermo attack 0.860 / def 0.924 | Bari attack 0.904 / def 0.819 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Palermo xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Bari xG
36%
BTTS
54%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palermo vs Bari kick off?
Palermo vs Bari kicked off at 17:00 on Thursday 26 December 2024 at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What was the final score in Palermo vs Bari?
Palermo 1 - 0 Bari.
Where is Palermo vs Bari being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renzo Barbera.
What competition is Palermo vs Bari part of?
Palermo vs Bari is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Palermo vs Bari?
Our statistical model gives Palermo a 31% chance of winning, Bari a 32% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Palermo vs Bari?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Palermo and Bari will score (BTTS).
Will Palermo vs Bari have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Bari?
Record (4 meetings): Palermo 2W | Draws 2 | Bari 0W.
What form are Palermo and Bari in?
Palermo (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Bari (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Palermo's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Bari's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.88. Flip it around — Bari's attack (0.90x) against Palermo's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 56/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 19.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 0-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
37%
2.69
32%
3.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.2%
Away win
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Palermo xG
Total xG
1.76
0.88
Bari xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.69
37%
Draw
3.16
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
42%
2.40
Win to Nil
13%
7.76
13%
7.60
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 15.2 | 6.7 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 5.8 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palermo vs Bari?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are Palermo and Bari expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Palermo and 0.88 for Bari, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Palermo vs Bari?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, Palermo have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 21W 16D 21L record — D-W-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bari's form line: 14W 27D 17L from 58 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Bari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.36 PPG for Palermo against 1.19 for Bari. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Palermo have posted 1.32 PPG from 28 outings (10W 7D 11L).
On the road, Bari have gone 5W 12D 11L from 28 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Palermo are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Bari are on 1.07 scored and 1.16 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palermo
Blended
Bari
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palermo and Bari in coming into this match?
Palermo have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while Bari have gone 14W 27D 17L in their last 58 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palermo at home or Bari away?
Palermo's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palermo at home: 1.32 PPG; Bari away: 0.96 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 30 January 2026, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Palermo have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Palermo won 3-0 on 2 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palermo have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Bari — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Palermo
2
Draws
1
Bari
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palermo and Bari?
From 8 meetings on record, Palermo have won 5, Bari have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palermo and Bari last play each other?
They last met on 30 January 2026, when Bari 0-3 Palermo.
Who has won more matches between Palermo and Bari?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palermo 50%, Bari 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Palermo) and 39% (Bari).
On the defensive side: Palermo have failed to score in 29% of games; Bari in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palermo home games / Bari away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palermo play Bari?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palermo's recent matches and 54% of Bari's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palermo vs Bari usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Palermo's recent games and 39% of Bari's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palermo and Bari tend to score early?
Palermo have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Bari in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palermo defy the odds to beat Bari 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palermo beat Bari 1-0 at Stadio Renzo Barbera, Regular Season - 19, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palermo 0.88 xG and Bari 0.88 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Bari landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palermo attack 0.86 / defence 0.92 against Bari attack 0.90 / defence 0.82, drawn from 56/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palermo 31% | Draw 37% | Bari 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Palermo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 54% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palermo 50%, Bari 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palermo's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not.
Bari's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palermo 1.36 PPG, Bari 1.19 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Palermo win broke the near-deadlock. Palermo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.21 average — tighter than their form line. Bari (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.