Cosenza 2-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Mantova in Serie B, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Sunday 12 January 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cosenza have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L L L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Cosenza have gone 2W 5D 3L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Mantova's overall Serie B record this term: 2W 5D 3L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Mantova have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Cosenza, 1.10 for Mantova — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cosenza lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 5.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 25 Aug 2024, ended 2–3 with Mantova winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 5.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 10% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Mantova goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 60% versus Mantova 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 30% | Mantova 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.14 xG and Mantova 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.768 / defence 1.007 | Mantova attack 0.933 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.040. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.768 is below the league average — the 1.14 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.212 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 58 Cosenza games / 20 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 34% | Mantova 29%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Mantova 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.12 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Cosenza 50% | Mantova 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Sunday 12 Jan 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 37% | Draw 34% | Mantova 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Cosenza 1.14 / Mantova 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.768 / def 1.007 | Mantova attack 0.933 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Mantova xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Mantova kick off?
Cosenza vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 12 January 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Mantova?
Cosenza 2 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Cosenza vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Mantova part of?
Cosenza vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 37% chance of winning, Mantova a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cosenza and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Mantova?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Mantova 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Mantova in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-D-L. Mantova (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Cosenza's attack rating (0.77) and Mantova's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mantova's attack (0.93x) against Cosenza's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 58/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
37%
2.69
34%
2.94
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.12
0.98
Mantova xG
2.69
37%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.25
55%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
9%
10.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.7 | 13.4 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.98 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 20 outings, Cosenza have picked up 1.05 PPG on a 4W 9D 7L record — L-L-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Mantova's form line: 5W 8D 7L from 20 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-L. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Cosenza against 1.15 for Mantova. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cosenza have posted 1.10 PPG from 10 outings (2W 5D 3L).
On the road, Mantova have gone 0W 5D 5L from 10 away games — 0.50 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.15 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.10 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cosenza have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games.
Last 20 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Mantova
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Mantova in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 9D 7L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Mantova have gone 5W 8D 7L in their last 20 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Mantova away?
Cosenza's home record (1.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.10 PPG; Mantova away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
1
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Mantova have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Cosenza 2-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Mantova 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 10% for Cosenza and 40% for Mantova.
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 40% of games; Mantova in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Cosenza's games and 60% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cosenza vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 10% of Cosenza's recent games and 40% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Mantova tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Mantova in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Mantova share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 21, as Cosenza and Mantova drew 2-2 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.14 xG and Mantova 0.98 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Cosenza beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mantova outscored their 0.98 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Mantova attack 0.93 / defence 1.21, drawn from 58/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 37% | Draw 34% | Mantova 29%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 30%, Mantova 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Mantova's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 1.05 PPG, Mantova 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.70 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.