Cosenza 1-1 Juve Stabia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cosenza vs Juve Stabia fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juve Stabia make the trip to Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla to face Cosenza in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Saturday 26 October 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Juve Stabia's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 2D 3L from 9 games (1.56 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.11 per game is modest, conceding 1.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 9 outings (44%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Juve Stabia have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 away fixtures this term (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.10 PPG for Cosenza against 1.56 for Juve Stabia. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cosenza goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Juve Stabia goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (9 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 44% versus Juve Stabia 44%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 22% | Juve Stabia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.08 xG and Juve Stabia 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.812 / defence 0.855 | Juve Stabia attack 0.828 / defence 1.069. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 1.204. Data: 47 Cosenza games / 9 Juve Stabia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 38% | Draw 36% | Juve Stabia 26%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.63 | Draw 2.78 | Juve Stabia 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 1.93. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.93 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cosenza as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.93 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cosenza 50% | Juve Stabia 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Juve Stabia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 26 Oct 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 38% | Draw 36% | Juve Stabia 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 40% | xG Cosenza 1.08 / Juve Stabia 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.812 / def 0.855 | Juve Stabia attack 0.828 / def 1.069 | league avg home 1.243 / away 1.204 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Juve Stabia xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Juve Stabia kick off?
Cosenza vs Juve Stabia kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 26 October 2024 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Juve Stabia?
Cosenza 1 - 1 Juve Stabia.
Where is Cosenza vs Juve Stabia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Juve Stabia part of?
Cosenza vs Juve Stabia is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Juve Stabia?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 38% chance of winning, Juve Stabia a 26% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Juve Stabia?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Cosenza and Juve Stabia will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Juve Stabia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Juve Stabia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cosenza and Juve Stabia in?
Cosenza (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-2D-3L in 9 | 1.56 PPG | GF 1.11 / GA 1.11 | L5 L-L-W-W-L.
What do the betting odds say about Cosenza vs Juve Stabia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cosenza's attack at 0.81x the league average against Juve Stabia's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juve Stabia's attack (0.83x) against Cosenza's defence (0.85x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
38%
2.62
36%
2.80
26%
3.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cosenza xG
Total xG
1.93
0.85
Juve Stabia xG
2.62
38%
Home win
2.80
36%
Draw
3.83
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
43%
2.34
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
16%
6.15
9%
11.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.3 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Juve Stabia?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Juve Stabia expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.85 for Juve Stabia, a combined total of 1.93.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Juve Stabia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cosenza come into this having played 9 games, going 2W 4D 3L for 1.11 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juve Stabia sit at 1.56 PPG from 9 outings (4W 2D 3L), a run that reads L-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Juve Stabia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Cosenza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Cosenza's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Juve Stabia have taken 1.60 points per game from 5 outings (2W 2D 1L).
Attack vs Defence
Cosenza are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Juve Stabia are on 1.11 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Juve Stabia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Juve Stabia in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 2W 4D 3L in their last 9 games (1.11 PPG), while Juve Stabia have gone 4W 2D 3L in their last 9 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Juve Stabia away?
Juve Stabia's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.40 PPG; Juve Stabia away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Juve Stabia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Juve Stabia in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Cosenza
1
Draws
1
Juve Stabia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Juve Stabia?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 0, Juve Stabia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Juve Stabia last play each other?
They last met on 16 February 2025, when Juve Stabia 3-0 Cosenza.
Who has won more matches between Cosenza and Juve Stabia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 20% (Cosenza) and 40% (Juve Stabia) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 20% (Cosenza) and 60% (Juve Stabia).
On the defensive side: Cosenza keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Juve Stabia in 40%; Cosenza have failed to score in 60% of games; Juve Stabia in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Juve Stabia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Juve Stabia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 20% of Cosenza's recent matches and 40% of Juve Stabia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Juve Stabia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 20% of Cosenza's recent games and 60% of Juve Stabia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Juve Stabia tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Juve Stabia in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cosenza and Juve Stabia share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza and Juve Stabia finished level at 1-1 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.08 xG and Juve Stabia 0.85 xG, a combined 1.93. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.81 / defence 0.85 against Juve Stabia attack 0.83 / defence 1.07, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 38% | Draw 36% | Juve Stabia 26%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 22%, Juve Stabia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (9 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Juve Stabia's trading profile (9 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Juve Stabia arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.11. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.