Cosenza 1-0 Carrarese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cosenza at 42%, yet in-form Carrarese provide a compelling counter-argument — this Cosenza vs Carrarese fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla plays host to Cosenza versus Carrarese in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Saturday 8 February 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Form
Cosenza (all games): 0W 3D 7L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.30 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cosenza, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cosenza's home record at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Serie B appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 0.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.30 — Cosenza are significantly better at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla than their overall form suggests.
Carrarese have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: W L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie B this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Carrarese are 0.80 PPG clear of Cosenza in recent Serie B fixtures (1.10 vs 0.30). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Cosenza have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Carrarese in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cosenza lead 0W to 1W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 1 previous contests averaged 1.0 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 21 Dec 2024, ended 0–1 with Carrarese winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cosenza — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Carrarese — key trading statistics (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cosenza 58% versus Carrarese 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cosenza 33% | Carrarese 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cosenza 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cosenza attack 0.761 / defence 1.047 | Carrarese attack 0.745 / defence 1.276. League average goals — home 1.234 / away 1.101. Cosenza's attack strength of 0.761 is below the league average — the 1.20 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Carrarese bring a strong defensive rating of 1.276 — this is suppressing Cosenza's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 62 Cosenza games / 24 Carrarese games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cosenza 42% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 24%. Fair-value odds: Cosenza 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Carrarese 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cosenza are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Carrarese (1.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 34% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cosenza if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. This conflicts with form data: Cosenza 60% | Carrarese 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cosenza vs Carrarese | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Feb 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cosenza 42% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Cosenza 1.20 / Carrarese 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Cosenza attack 0.761 / def 1.047 | Carrarese attack 0.745 / def 1.276 | league avg home 1.234 / away 1.101 • Poisson stance: Cosenza (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Cosenza xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Carrarese xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cosenza vs Carrarese kick off?
Cosenza vs Carrarese kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 8 February 2025 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What was the final score in Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Cosenza 1 - 0 Carrarese.
Where is Cosenza vs Carrarese being played?
The match is being played at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla.
What competition is Cosenza vs Carrarese part of?
Cosenza vs Carrarese is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Our statistical model gives Cosenza a 42% chance of winning, Carrarese a 24% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Cosenza the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cosenza and Carrarese will score (BTTS).
Will Cosenza vs Carrarese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Carrarese?
Record (1 meetings): Cosenza 0W | Draws 0 | Carrarese 1W.
What form are Cosenza and Carrarese in?
Cosenza (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-L-L-L. Carrarese (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Cosenza's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Carrarese's defensive record (1.28x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.20. Flip it around — Carrarese's attack (0.74x) against Cosenza's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.5%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cosenza Win
42%
2.41
34%
2.91
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Cosenza xG
Total xG
2.06
0.86
Carrarese xG
2.41
42%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
18%
5.68
7%
13.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 11.0 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 15.3 | 13.2 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cosenza and Carrarese expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Cosenza and 0.86 for Carrarese, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Cosenza vs Carrarese?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Cosenza's recent record stands at 4W 10D 10L from 24 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Cosenza is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Carrarese, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 11L across 24 games — 1.12 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Cosenza against 1.12 for Carrarese. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Cosenza have managed 2W 6D 4L from 12 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Carrarese's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.12 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Carrarese's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cosenza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cosenza are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Carrarese are on 0.88 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Defensively: Carrarese in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 24 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cosenza
Blended
Carrarese
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cosenza and Carrarese in coming into this match?
Cosenza have gone 4W 10D 10L in their last 24 games (0.92 PPG), while Carrarese have gone 7W 6D 11L in their last 24 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cosenza at home or Carrarese away?
Cosenza's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cosenza at home: 1.00 PPG; Carrarese away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Cosenza or Carrarese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cosenza have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Carrarese in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
1
Cosenza
0
Draws
1
Carrarese
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cosenza and Carrarese?
From 2 meetings on record, Cosenza have won 1, Carrarese have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Cosenza and Carrarese last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2025, when Cosenza 1-0 Carrarese.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Carrarese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cosenza 50%, Carrarese 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Cosenza and 50% for Carrarese.
On the defensive side: Cosenza have failed to score in 42% of games; Carrarese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cosenza home games / Carrarese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cosenza play Carrarese?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cosenza's recent matches and 58% of Carrarese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cosenza vs Carrarese usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Cosenza's recent games and 50% of Carrarese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cosenza and Carrarese tend to score early?
Cosenza have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Carrarese in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cosenza edge out Carrarese 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Carrarese 1-0 at Stadio San Vito-Luigi Marulla, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cosenza 1.20 xG and Carrarese 0.86 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Carrarese landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cosenza attack 0.76 / defence 1.05 against Carrarese attack 0.74 / defence 1.28, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cosenza 42% | Draw 34% | Carrarese 24%, with Cosenza to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cosenza 33%, Carrarese 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cosenza's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Carrarese's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cosenza 0.92 PPG, Carrarese 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Cosenza (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.