Mantova 3-1 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Mantova at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Mantova vs Frosinone fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie B clash, Regular Season - 18 as Mantova welcome Frosinone to Stadio Danilo Martelli. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 December 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Mantova stand at 1W 6D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Mantova, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Mantova have posted 4W 3D 1L at Stadio Danilo Martelli — 1.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.75 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 8 home games (62%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Danilo Martelli. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — Mantova are significantly better at Stadio Danilo Martelli than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie B games this season, Frosinone have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.90 PPG (Mantova) versus 1.00 (Frosinone). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
In-Play Data
Mantova trading profile (17 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Frosinone trading profile (17 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Mantova 47% versus Frosinone 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Mantova 35% | Frosinone 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Mantova 1.08 xG and Frosinone 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Mantova attack 0.831 / defence 0.973 | Frosinone attack 0.664 / defence 1.066. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.083. Data: 17 Mantova games / 17 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 21%. Fair-value odds: Mantova 2.38 | Draw 2.63 | Frosinone 4.76. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Mantova are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 38% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Mantova offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Mantova 38% | Frosinone 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Mantova vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: Stadio Danilo Martelli • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Dec 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Mantova 42% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Mantova 1.08 / Frosinone 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Mantova attack 0.831 / def 0.973 | Frosinone attack 0.664 / def 1.066 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: Mantova (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Mantova xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Frosinone xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Mantova vs Frosinone kick off?
Mantova vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 21 December 2024 at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What was the final score in Mantova vs Frosinone?
Mantova 3 - 1 Frosinone.
Where is Mantova vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Danilo Martelli.
What competition is Mantova vs Frosinone part of?
Mantova vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Mantova vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Mantova a 42% chance of winning, Frosinone a 21% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Mantova the favourite.
Will both teams score in Mantova vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Mantova and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Mantova vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Frosinone?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Mantova and Frosinone in?
Mantova (all comps): 1W-6D-3L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-L-D. Frosinone (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Mantova's attack at 0.83x the league average against Frosinone's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 1.08 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Frosinone's attack versus Mantova's defence, projects 0.70 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 17/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.5%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Mantova Win
42%
2.40
38%
2.65
21%
4.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Mantova xG
Total xG
1.78
0.70
Frosinone xG
2.40
42%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
4.84
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.77
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
34%
2.96
Win to Nil
21%
4.84
7%
14.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 11.7 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 12.7 | 4.5 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.9 | 6.9 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Mantova vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Mantova and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Mantova and 0.70 for Frosinone, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Mantova vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Mantova come into this having played 17 games, going 4W 7D 6L for 1.12 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Mantova is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Frosinone sit at 0.94 PPG from 17 outings (3W 7D 7L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Mantova on 1.12 PPG, Frosinone on 0.94. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Mantova's home form reads 4W 3D 1L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.12 PPG overall — Mantova are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Frosinone have taken 1.00 points per game from 8 outings (2W 2D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Mantova come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Mantova are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 0.76 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Last 17 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Mantova
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Mantova and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Mantova have gone 4W 7D 6L in their last 17 games (1.12 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 3W 7D 7L in their last 17 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Mantova at home or Frosinone away?
Mantova's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Mantova at home: 1.88 PPG; Frosinone away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 8 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Frosinone have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2026, when Frosinone won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Mantova's record when hosting Frosinone specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Mantova
0
Draws
3
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Mantova and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Mantova have won 1, Frosinone have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Mantova and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 8 May 2026, when Frosinone 5-0 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Mantova and Frosinone?
Frosinone have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Mantova tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Mantova 38%, Frosinone 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Mantova and 38% for Frosinone.
On the defensive side: Mantova keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches; Frosinone in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Mantova home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Mantova play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Mantova's recent matches and 38% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Mantova vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Mantova's recent games and 38% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Mantova and Frosinone tend to score early?
Mantova have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Mantova cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Frosinone.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Frosinone 3-1 at Stadio Danilo Martelli, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Mantova 1.08 xG and Frosinone 0.70 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Mantova beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Mantova attack 0.83 / defence 0.97 against Frosinone attack 0.66 / defence 1.07, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Mantova 42% | Draw 38% | Frosinone 21%, with Mantova to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Mantova 35%, Frosinone 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Mantova's trading profile (17 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Frosinone's trading profile (17 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Mantova 1.12 PPG, Frosinone 0.94 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm. Frosinone (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.