Juve Stabia 1-0 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juve Stabia at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juve Stabia vs Palermo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round sees Palermo travel to Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti to take on Juve Stabia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 17 May 2025, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Juve Stabia — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: L W D L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
In front of their own supporters this season, Juve Stabia have posted 6W 2D 2L at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palermo stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L W D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juve Stabia at 1.60 PPG versus Palermo's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Juve Stabia have won 0, Palermo 2, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Jan 2025, ended 0–1 with Palermo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Juve Stabia in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Palermo in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 53% versus Palermo 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 47% | Palermo 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 1.23 xG and Palermo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 0.904 / defence 0.895 | Palermo attack 1.198 / defence 1.077. League average goals — home 1.263 / away 1.141. Data: 38 Juve Stabia games / 76 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 35% | Draw 30% | Palermo 35%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Palermo 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.45 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 44% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Juve Stabia 50% | Palermo 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Saturday 17 May 2025, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 35% | Draw 30% | Palermo 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 51% | xG Juve Stabia 1.23 / Palermo 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 0.904 / def 0.895 | Palermo attack 1.198 / def 1.077 | league avg home 1.263 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Palermo xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Palermo kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Palermo kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 17 May 2025 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Juve Stabia 1 - 0 Palermo.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Palermo part of?
Juve Stabia vs Palermo is a Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 35% chance of winning, Palermo a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Juve Stabia and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Juve Stabia 0W | Draws 0 | Palermo 2W.
What form are Juve Stabia and Palermo in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-L-D. Palermo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Juve Stabia's attack at 0.90x the league average against Palermo's defence at 1.08x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palermo's attack versus Juve Stabia's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/76 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.3%), 1-0 (8.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juve Stabia Win
35%
2.86
30%
3.30
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.45
1.22
Palermo xG
2.86
35%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
29%
3.40
29%
3.42
Win to Nil
10%
9.72
10%
9.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 10.5 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.9 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.3 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.22 for Palermo, a combined total of 2.45.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Juve Stabia's recent record stands at 14W 13D 11L from 38 games, a 1.45 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-D in the last five.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 14L across 38 games — 1.37 PPG, with W-L-L-W-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juve Stabia on 1.45 PPG, Palermo on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Juve Stabia have managed 10W 4D 5L from 19 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 6W 5D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.21 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juve Stabia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.37 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Current Season
Palermo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Palermo in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 14W 13D 11L in their last 38 games (1.45 PPG), while Palermo have gone 14W 10D 14L in their last 38 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Palermo away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.79 PPG; Palermo away: 1.21 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Palermo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palermo in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 23 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Juve Stabia's record when hosting Palermo specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
3
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Palermo have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 23 August 2026, when Palermo 1-0 Juve Stabia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Palermo?
Palermo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 47%, Palermo 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Juve Stabia) and 63% (Palermo). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 16% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 47% of Juve Stabia's games and 68% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Juve Stabia vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Juve Stabia's matches and 63% of Palermo's.
Do Juve Stabia and Palermo tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Palermo in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Juve Stabia edge out Palermo 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juve Stabia beat Palermo 1-0 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Promotion Play-offs - Qualifying Round, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 1.23 xG and Palermo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palermo landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Palermo attack 1.20 / defence 1.08, drawn from 38/76 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 35% | Draw 30% | Palermo 35%, with Juve Stabia to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 47%, Palermo 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palermo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juve Stabia 1.45 PPG, Palermo 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juve Stabia win broke the near-deadlock. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Palermo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.