Frosinone 1-1 Palermo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palermo at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Frosinone vs Palermo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Benito Stirpe plays host to Frosinone versus Palermo in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off: Friday 8 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Form
Frosinone (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Serie B fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Frosinone have posted 1W 5D 4L at Stadio Benito Stirpe — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Palermo have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Palermo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie B this season, Palermo have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Palermo are 0.80 PPG clear of Frosinone in recent Serie B fixtures (1.60 vs 0.80). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Frosinone lead 1W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Scoring has been limited when these teams have met. The 2 previous contests averaged 1.5 goals, making the Under 2.5 the historically backed angle in the goals market. The most recent clash, on 18 Feb 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Frosinone goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Palermo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Frosinone 58% versus Palermo 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Frosinone 56% | Palermo 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Frosinone 0.63 xG and Palermo 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Frosinone attack 0.594 / defence 1.096 | Palermo attack 1.078 / defence 0.912. League average goals — home 1.156 / away 1.061. Frosinone's attack strength of 0.594 is below the league average — the 0.63 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 12 Frosinone games / 50 Palermo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Frosinone 16% | Draw 35% | Palermo 49%. Fair-value odds: Frosinone 6.25 | Draw 2.86 | Palermo 2.04. Palermo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (35%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palermo are the pick at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palermo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.88 combined xG gives a 29% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Frosinone 20% | Palermo 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Frosinone vs Palermo | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Benito Stirpe • Kick-off: Friday 8 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Frosinone 16% | Draw 35% | Palermo 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Frosinone 0.63 / Palermo 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Frosinone attack 0.594 / def 1.096 | Palermo attack 1.078 / def 0.912 | league avg home 1.156 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Palermo (49%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.63
Frosinone xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Palermo xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Frosinone vs Palermo kick off?
Frosinone vs Palermo kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 8 November 2024 at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What was the final score in Frosinone vs Palermo?
Frosinone 1 - 1 Palermo.
Where is Frosinone vs Palermo being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Benito Stirpe.
What competition is Frosinone vs Palermo part of?
Frosinone vs Palermo is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our statistical model gives Frosinone a 16% chance of winning, Palermo a 49% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Palermo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Frosinone and Palermo will score (BTTS).
Will Frosinone vs Palermo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Palermo?
Record (2 meetings): Frosinone 1W | Draws 1 | Palermo 0W.
What form are Frosinone and Palermo in?
Frosinone (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. Palermo (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
What do the betting odds say about Frosinone vs Palermo?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Frosinone's attack at 0.59x the league average against Palermo's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 0.63 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Palermo's attack (1.08x) against Frosinone's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-1 carries the highest individual probability at 17.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (16.8%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palermo Win
16%
6.21
35%
2.88
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
19.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
0 – 2
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.63
Frosinone xG
Total xG
1.88
1.25
Palermo xG
6.21
16%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.80
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
53%
1.87
Win to Nil
5%
21.73
26%
3.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 19.1 | 12.0 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.0 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 3.7 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Frosinone vs Palermo?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.6%.
How many goals are Frosinone and Palermo expected to score?
The model projects 0.63 expected goals for Frosinone and 1.25 for Palermo, a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Frosinone vs Palermo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Frosinone's recent record stands at 9W 17D 24L from 50 games, a 0.88 PPG return, with L-L-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palermo, meanwhile, have gone 18W 14D 18L across 50 games — 1.36 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Palermo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Palermo by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Frosinone heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Frosinone have managed 7W 8D 10L from 25 games — 1.16 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Palermo's away record stands at 9W 8D 8L across 25 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Frosinone are averaging 1.02 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Palermo are on 1.42 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Frosinone
Blended
Palermo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Frosinone and Palermo in coming into this match?
Frosinone have gone 9W 17D 24L in their last 50 games (0.88 PPG), while Palermo have gone 18W 14D 18L in their last 50 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Frosinone at home or Palermo away?
Palermo's away record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Frosinone at home: 1.16 PPG; Palermo away: 1.40 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 6 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 10 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Frosinone have gone 1W 2D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Palermo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Frosinone
4
Draws
1
Palermo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Frosinone and Palermo?
From 6 meetings on record, Frosinone have won 1, Palermo have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Frosinone and Palermo last play each other?
They last met on 10 April 2026, when Frosinone 1-1 Palermo.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Palermo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 28% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Frosinone 60%, Palermo 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Frosinone) and 44% (Palermo).
On the defensive side: Frosinone have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Frosinone home games / Palermo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Frosinone play Palermo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Frosinone's games and 56% of Palermo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Frosinone vs Palermo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Frosinone's recent games and 44% of Palermo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Frosinone and Palermo tend to score early?
Frosinone have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Palermo in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Frosinone and Palermo share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Benito Stirpe, Regular Season - 13, as Frosinone and Palermo drew 1-1 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Frosinone 0.63 xG and Palermo 1.25 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Frosinone attack 0.59 / defence 1.10 against Palermo attack 1.08 / defence 0.91, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Frosinone 16% | Draw 35% | Palermo 49%, with Palermo to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Frosinone 56%, Palermo 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Frosinone's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Palermo's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palermo arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.88. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.