Feralpisalo 5-1 Lecco – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Feralpisalo at 45% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Feralpisalo face Lecco.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Feralpisalo host Lecco at Stadio Leonardo Garilli in Serie B (matchday 22). Kick-off is Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time.
Form Guide
Feralpisalo — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Feralpisalo have gone 2W 3D 5L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Lecco stand at 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lecco away from home: 2W 3D 5L from their last 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Feralpisalo at 1.20 PPG versus Lecco's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Feralpisalo have won 1, Lecco 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 3.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Sep 2023, ended Feralpisalo 2–1 Lecco — a Feralpisalo win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Feralpisalo in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Lecco in-play tendencies (last 21 games, 10 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Feralpisalo 48% versus Lecco 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Feralpisalo 57% | Lecco 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Feralpisalo 1.55 xG and Lecco 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Feralpisalo attack 0.932 / defence 1.163 | Lecco attack 0.877 / defence 1.239. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.188. Lecco's defence rating of 1.239 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Feralpisalo's projected output up. Data: built from Feralpisalo's last 21 games and Lecco's last 21.
Result probabilities: Feralpisalo 45% | Draw 26% | Lecco 29%. Fair-value odds: Feralpisalo 2.24 | Draw 3.83 | Lecco 3.42. Feralpisalo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Feralpisalo are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Feralpisalo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Feralpisalo's last 10 home games and Lecco's last 10 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Feralpisalo 40% (last 10 home games) | Lecco 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Feralpisalo vs Lecco | Competition: Serie B, matchday 22 | Venue: Stadio Leonardo Garilli • Kick-off: Saturday 27 January 2024 at 15:15 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Feralpisalo 45% | Draw 26% | Lecco 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% (Under 48%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Feralpisalo 1.55 / Lecco 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Feralpisalo attack 0.932 / def 1.163 | Lecco attack 0.877 / def 1.239 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.188 • Poisson stance: Feralpisalo (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Feralpisalo xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Lecco xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Lecco FAQs
What time does Feralpisalo vs Lecco kick off?
Feralpisalo vs Lecco kicked off at 15:15 UK time on Saturday 27 January 2024 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What was the final score in Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Feralpisalo 5 - 1 Lecco.
Where is Feralpisalo vs Lecco being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Leonardo Garilli.
What competition is Feralpisalo vs Lecco part of?
Feralpisalo vs Lecco is a Serie B fixture (matchday 22) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Our statistical model gives Feralpisalo a 45% chance of winning, Lecco a 29% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Feralpisalo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Feralpisalo and Lecco will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Feralpisalo vs Lecco have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Feralpisalo's attack at 0.93x the league average against Lecco's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.55 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lecco's attack versus Feralpisalo's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Feralpisalo's last 21 games and Lecco's last 21 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Feralpisalo Win
45%
2.24
26%
3.83
29%
3.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Feralpisalo xG
Total xG
2.76
1.21
Lecco xG
2.24
45%
Home win
3.83
26%
Draw
3.42
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
13%
7.54
6%
16.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 11.9 | 7.2 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.2 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.7 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Feralpisalo vs Lecco Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Feralpisalo and Lecco expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Feralpisalo and 1.21 for Lecco, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Feralpisalo vs Lecco?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Feralpisalo come into this having played 21 games, going 4W 5D 12L for 0.81 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-W.
On the other side, Lecco sit at 0.95 PPG from 21 outings (5W 5D 11L), a run that reads L-D-W-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Feralpisalo on 0.81 PPG, Lecco on 0.95. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Feralpisalo's home form reads 2W 3D 5L across their last 10 home games, a 0.90 PPG return.
Away from home, Lecco have taken 0.90 points per game from their last 10 away games (2W 3D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Feralpisalo are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; Lecco are on 1.14 scored and 1.76 conceded.
Last 21 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Feralpisalo
Blended
Lecco
Blended
Feralpisalo (Home) vs Lecco (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Feralpisalo
Blended
Lecco
Blended
❓ Feralpisalo vs Lecco Form FAQs
What form are Feralpisalo and Lecco in coming into this match?
Feralpisalo have gone 4W 5D 12L in their last 21 games (0.81 PPG), while Lecco have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Feralpisalo at home or Lecco away?
Feralpisalo's home record (0.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Feralpisalo at home: 0.90 PPG; Lecco away: 0.90 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 2 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2023. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 27 January 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Feralpisalo
0
Draws
0
Lecco
Recent Meetings
❓ Feralpisalo vs Lecco H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Feralpisalo and Lecco?
Across the 2 head-to-head matches in our data, Feralpisalo have won 2, Lecco have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Feralpisalo and Lecco last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 27 January 2024: Feralpisalo 5-1 Lecco.
Who has won more matches between Feralpisalo and Lecco?
Feralpisalo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 2 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Feralpisalo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Lecco are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 60% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Feralpisalo 40%, Lecco 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Feralpisalo) and 60% (Lecco). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Feralpisalo have failed to score in 40% of games; Lecco in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Feralpisalo home games / Lecco away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Feralpisalo vs Lecco Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Feralpisalo and Lecco matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 60% of Lecco's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Feralpisalo and Lecco matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Feralpisalo's matches and 60% of Lecco's.
Do Feralpisalo and Lecco matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 90% of Feralpisalo's recent matches and 90% of Lecco's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Feralpisalo run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Lecco.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Feralpisalo beat Lecco 5-1 at Stadio Leonardo Garilli, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Feralpisalo 1.55 xG and Lecco 1.21 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Feralpisalo beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Feralpisalo attack 0.93 / defence 1.16 against Lecco attack 0.88 / defence 1.24, drawn from 21/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Feralpisalo 45% | Draw 26% | Lecco 29%, with Feralpisalo to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Feralpisalo 57%, Lecco 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Feralpisalo's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Lecco's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Feralpisalo 0.81 PPG, Lecco 0.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Feralpisalo win broke the near-deadlock. Feralpisalo (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. Lecco (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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