Cremonese 2-2 Modena – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 40% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Modena encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cremonese host Modena at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 January 2025 at 16:15 UTC.
Form Guide
Cremonese — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cremonese at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadio Giovanni Zini this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Modena stand at 3W 6D 1L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Modena, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Modena away from home this season: 1W 6D 3L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Cremonese at 1.80 PPG versus Modena's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Cremonese, 0 for Modena and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2024, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Cremonese in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Modena in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 50% versus Modena 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 52% | Modena 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.32 xG and Modena 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.995 / defence 1.059 | Modena attack 0.912 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.211 / away 1.109. Data: 60 Cremonese games / 60 Modena games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Modena 28%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.50 | Draw 3.03 | Modena 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cremonese at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cremonese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.39 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 70% | Modena 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Modena | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Jan 2025, 16:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Modena 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 51% | xG Cremonese 1.32 / Modena 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.995 / def 1.059 | Modena attack 0.912 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.211 / away 1.109 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Modena xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Modena kick off?
Cremonese vs Modena kicked off at 16:15 on Sunday 26 January 2025 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Modena?
Cremonese 2 - 2 Modena.
Where is Cremonese vs Modena being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Modena part of?
Cremonese vs Modena is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Modena?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 40% chance of winning, Modena a 28% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Modena?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cremonese and Modena will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Modena have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Modena?
Record (3 meetings): Cremonese 2W | Draws 1 | Modena 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Modena in?
Cremonese (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Modena (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (0.99) and Modena's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 1.32 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Modena's attack versus Cremonese's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
40%
2.53
33%
3.04
28%
3.63
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.39
1.07
Modena xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.63
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.74
Win to Nil
14%
7.37
7%
13.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 12.9 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.5 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Modena?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Modena expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.07 for Modena, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Modena?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cremonese's recent record stands at 29W 16D 15L from 60 games, a 1.72 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Modena, meanwhile, have gone 15W 28D 17L across 60 games — 1.22 PPG, with W-D-D-L-D in their last five. The sample for Modena is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cremonese by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Modena heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cremonese have managed 14W 8D 7L from 29 games — 1.72 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Modena's away record stands at 4W 17D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cremonese are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 0.93 conceded per game recently; Modena are on 1.12 scored and 1.23 conceded.
Defensively: Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Modena
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Modena in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 29W 16D 15L in their last 60 games (1.72 PPG), while Modena have gone 15W 28D 17L in their last 60 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Modena away?
Cremonese's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.72 PPG; Modena away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Modena been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Modena in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 23 Dec 2023, when Cremonese won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cremonese's record when hosting Modena specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Cremonese
2
Draws
1
Modena
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Modena?
From 5 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Modena have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Modena last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Cremonese 0-3 Modena.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Modena?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Modena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 52%, Modena 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Cremonese) and 41% (Modena).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Modena in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Modena away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Modena?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Cremonese's games and 62% of Modena's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cremonese vs Modena usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Cremonese's recent games and 41% of Modena's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Modena tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Modena in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese and Modena share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 23, as Cremonese and Modena drew 2-2 in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.32 xG and Modena 1.07 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Modena outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.99 / defence 1.06 against Modena attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 40% | Draw 33% | Modena 28%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 52%, Modena 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Modena's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.22. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Cremonese (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.90 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Modena (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.07 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.