Cremonese 1-0 Frosinone – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Cremonese at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Frosinone encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Frosinone meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 14. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cremonese's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W W D L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 5W 3D 2L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Frosinone have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: L D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Frosinone, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Frosinone's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Form favours the hosts. Cremonese's 1.50 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Frosinone's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 1 for Frosinone and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Apr 2022, ended 1–2 with Frosinone winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Frosinone half-time and goal-timing data (51 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 53% versus Frosinone 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 55% | Frosinone 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 1.38 xG and Frosinone 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.996 / defence 1.127 | Frosinone attack 0.696 / defence 1.202. League average goals — home 1.154 / away 1.059. Frosinone bring a strong defensive rating of 1.202 — this is suppressing Cremonese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Cremonese games / 13 Frosinone games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 47% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 20%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 2.13 | Draw 3.03 | Frosinone 5.00. Cremonese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (33%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.21. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.21 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Cremonese are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cremonese if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.21 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Cremonese 60% | Frosinone 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Frosinone | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 47% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 45% | xG Cremonese 1.38 / Frosinone 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.996 / def 1.127 | Frosinone attack 0.696 / def 1.202 | league avg home 1.154 / away 1.059 • Poisson stance: Cremonese (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Frosinone xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Frosinone kick off?
Cremonese vs Frosinone kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 24 November 2024 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Cremonese 1 - 0 Frosinone.
Where is Cremonese vs Frosinone being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Frosinone part of?
Cremonese vs Frosinone is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 47% chance of winning, Frosinone a 20% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Cremonese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cremonese and Frosinone will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Frosinone have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Frosinone?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 1 | Frosinone 1W.
What form are Cremonese and Frosinone in?
Cremonese (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Frosinone (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-D-D.
What do the betting odds say about Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cremonese's attack rating (1.00) and Frosinone's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.38 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Frosinone's attack (0.70x) against Cremonese's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 51/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cremonese Win
47%
2.12
33%
3.05
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.21
0.83
Frosinone xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.05
33%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.30
25%
3.98
Win to Nil
21%
4.86
5%
19.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.1 | 12.6 | 5.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.7 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Frosinone expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Cremonese and 0.83 for Frosinone, a combined total of 2.21.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Frosinone?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 51 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.67 PPG on a 24W 13D 14L record — W-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Frosinone's form line: 9W 18D 24L from 51 games, 0.88 PPG, last five L-D-D-D-D. The sample for Frosinone is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Cremonese are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Frosinone.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.75 PPG from 24 outings (12W 6D 6L).
On the road, Frosinone have gone 2W 8D 14L from 24 away games — 0.58 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cremonese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cremonese are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Frosinone are on 1.02 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 51 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Frosinone
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Frosinone in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 24W 13D 14L in their last 51 games (1.67 PPG), while Frosinone have gone 9W 18D 24L in their last 51 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Frosinone away?
Cremonese's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.75 PPG; Frosinone away: 0.58 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Frosinone been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Frosinone in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 January 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Cremonese have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cremonese won 0-3 on 12 Jan 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Frosinone — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Cremonese
1
Draws
1
Frosinone
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Frosinone?
From 4 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 2, Frosinone have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Frosinone last play each other?
They last met on 12 January 2025, when Frosinone 0-3 Cremonese.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Frosinone?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Frosinone are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cremonese 50%, Frosinone 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Cremonese) and 50% (Frosinone).
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Frosinone in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Frosinone away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Frosinone?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cremonese's recent matches and 58% of Frosinone's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Frosinone usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Cremonese's recent games and 50% of Frosinone's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Frosinone tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Frosinone in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Cremonese edge out Frosinone 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Frosinone 1-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 1.38 xG and Frosinone 0.83 xG, a combined 2.21. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Frosinone landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 1.00 / defence 1.13 against Frosinone attack 0.70 / defence 1.20, drawn from 51/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 47% | Draw 33% | Frosinone 20%, with Cremonese to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 55%, Frosinone 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Frosinone's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Cremonese arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.88. Form held, and they took the win. Cremonese (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Frosinone (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.96 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.