Cremonese 2-0 Benevento – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Benevento at 47% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cremonese vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cremonese and Benevento meet at Stadio Giovanni Zini in Serie B, Regular Season - 10. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 31 October 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cremonese have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 2W 3D 5L. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cremonese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Cremonese have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadio Giovanni Zini — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
Benevento's overall Serie B record this term: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games (1.67 PPG). Last five: W W D W D. They are scoring at 1.56 per game and conceding 0.89. 3 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Benevento, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Benevento's form when playing away from home: 2W 0D 1L across 3 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.33 conceded per game. 2 away clean sheets from 3 games (67%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Benevento arrive in superior form — a 0.77 PPG advantage (1.67 vs 0.90) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Cremonese, 0 for Benevento and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Cremonese half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 56% of games.
Benevento half-time and goal-timing data (9 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cremonese 33% versus Benevento 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cremonese 44% | Benevento 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cremonese 0.81 xG and Benevento 1.30 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cremonese attack 0.744 / defence 1.058 | Benevento attack 0.931 / defence 0.860. League average goals — home 1.269 / away 1.319. Cremonese's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 0.81 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 9 Cremonese games / 9 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cremonese 22% | Draw 30% | Benevento 47%. Fair-value odds: Cremonese 4.55 | Draw 3.33 | Benevento 2.13. Benevento hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.11. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.11 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Benevento as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Benevento if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.11 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 41% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cremonese 50% | Benevento 0% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cremonese vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Stadio Giovanni Zini • Kick-off: Saturday 31 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cremonese 22% | Draw 30% | Benevento 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 41% | xG Cremonese 0.81 / Benevento 1.30 • Poisson strength factors: Cremonese attack 0.744 / def 1.058 | Benevento attack 0.931 / def 0.860 | league avg home 1.269 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Benevento (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Cremonese xG
Expected Goals
1.30
Benevento xG
41%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cremonese vs Benevento kick off?
Cremonese vs Benevento kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 31 October 2026 at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What was the final score in Cremonese vs Benevento?
Cremonese 2 - 0 Benevento.
Where is Cremonese vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Giovanni Zini.
What competition is Cremonese vs Benevento part of?
Cremonese vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cremonese vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cremonese a 22% chance of winning, Benevento a 47% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Benevento the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cremonese vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Cremonese and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cremonese vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Benevento?
Record (2 meetings): Cremonese 0W | Draws 2 | Benevento 0W.
What form are Cremonese and Benevento in?
Cremonese (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Benevento (all comps): 4W-3D-2L in 9 | 1.67 PPG | GF 1.56 / GA 0.89 | L5 W-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Cremonese's attack at 0.74x the league average against Benevento's defence at 0.86x — combine the two and it projects 0.81 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Benevento's attack (0.93x) against Cremonese's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.30.
These ratings are built from 9/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.1%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Benevento Win
22%
4.45
30%
3.28
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
12.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Cremonese xG
Total xG
2.11
1.30
Benevento xG
4.45
22%
Home win
3.28
30%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
27%
3.66
44%
2.25
Win to Nil
6%
16.31
21%
4.79
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 15.7 | 10.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.8 | 8.3 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cremonese vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Cremonese and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Cremonese and 1.30 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.11.
How confident is the prediction model for Cremonese vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Cremonese have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 2W 3D 4L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cremonese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Benevento's form line: 4W 3D 2L from 9 games, 1.67 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-D. The sample for Benevento is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Benevento are the form team by 0.67 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Cremonese.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Cremonese have posted 1.33 PPG from 3 outings (1W 1D 1L).
On the road, Benevento have gone 2W 0D 1L from 3 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Benevento come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Cremonese are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 1.56 scored and 0.89 conceded.
Last 9 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cremonese
Blended
Benevento
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cremonese and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cremonese have gone 2W 3D 4L in their last 9 games (1.00 PPG), while Benevento have gone 4W 3D 2L in their last 9 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cremonese at home or Benevento away?
Benevento's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cremonese at home: 1.33 PPG; Benevento away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Cremonese or Benevento been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cremonese have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Benevento in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. The two were last together as recently as 31 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cremonese have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Benevento — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Cremonese
2
Draws
0
Benevento
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cremonese and Benevento?
From 3 meetings on record, Cremonese have won 1, Benevento have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cremonese and Benevento last play each other?
They last met on 31 October 2026, when Cremonese 2-0 Benevento.
Who has won more matches between Cremonese and Benevento?
Cremonese have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Cremonese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Benevento tend to start slowly — only 0% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 33% (Cremonese) and 0% (Benevento) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cremonese and 33% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Cremonese keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Benevento in 67%; Cremonese have failed to score in 67% of games; Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cremonese home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cremonese play Benevento?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Cremonese's recent matches and 0% of Benevento's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cremonese vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cremonese's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cremonese and Benevento tend to score early?
Cremonese have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Benevento in 0% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cremonese cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Benevento.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cremonese beat Benevento 2-0 at Stadio Giovanni Zini, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cremonese 0.81 xG and Benevento 1.30 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cremonese beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Benevento landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cremonese attack 0.74 / defence 1.06 against Benevento attack 0.93 / defence 0.86, drawn from 9/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cremonese 22% | Draw 30% | Benevento 47%, with Benevento to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Cremonese win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cremonese 44%, Benevento 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cremonese's trading profile (9 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Benevento's trading profile (9 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Benevento arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Cremonese winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cremonese (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Benevento (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.