Cesena vs Benevento – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Cesena at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cesena vs Benevento encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Benevento travel to Stadio Dino Manuzzi to take on Cesena. The game is scheduled for Saturday 23 January 2027, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cesena stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Cesena have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cesena's form when playing at home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 games at Stadio Dino Manuzzi this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Benevento — All Games: 0W 1D 2L from 3 Serie B fixtures this season — 0.33 PPG. Last five: L D L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Benevento have played only a handful of Serie B games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Cesena are in the better shape of the two on current Serie B data — 0.77 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.33). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Cesena register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Benevento in 67% (using overall form) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Cesena trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; they lead at the break 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games.
Benevento trading profile (3 games): they score before half-time in 33% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Cesena 100% and Benevento 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cesena 33% | Benevento 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cesena 1.44 xG and Benevento 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cesena attack 0.934 / defence 1.061 | Benevento attack 0.696 / defence 1.106. League average goals — home 1.391 / away 1.158. Data: 41 Cesena games / 3 Benevento games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cesena 51% | Draw 27% | Benevento 22%. Fair-value odds: Cesena 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Benevento 4.55. Cesena hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Both sides post BTTS form rates above 65% but Poisson BTTS probability is only 44% — the model sees a defensive matchup that form results do not yet show.
Poisson rates Cesena as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cesena offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.29 combined xG gives a 40% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 44% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Cesena 80% | Benevento 67% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cesena vs Benevento | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Stadio Dino Manuzzi • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Jan 2027, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cesena 51% | Draw 27% | Benevento 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Cesena 1.44 / Benevento 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Cesena attack 0.934 / def 1.061 | Benevento attack 0.696 / def 1.106 | league avg home 1.391 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Cesena (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Cesena xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Benevento xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cesena vs Benevento kick off?
Cesena vs Benevento is scheduled to kick off at 14:00 on Saturday 23 January 2027 at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
Where is Cesena vs Benevento being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Dino Manuzzi.
What competition is Cesena vs Benevento part of?
Cesena vs Benevento is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cesena vs Benevento?
Our statistical model gives Cesena a 51% chance of winning, Benevento a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Cesena the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cesena vs Benevento?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cesena and Benevento will score (BTTS).
Will Cesena vs Benevento have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cesena and Benevento?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cesena and Benevento in?
Cesena (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-D-W-D. Benevento (all comps): 0W-1D-2L in 3 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.67 / GA 1.33 | L5 L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Cesena's attack at 0.93x the league average against Benevento's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Benevento's attack versus Cesena's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/3 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.9%), 0-0 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cesena Win
51%
1.97
27%
3.72
22%
4.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Cesena xG
Total xG
2.29
0.85
Benevento xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.47
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
43%
2.35
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
22%
4.63
5%
18.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.1 | 8.6 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.5 | 12.4 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.4 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.0 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cesena vs Benevento?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cesena and Benevento expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Cesena and 0.85 for Benevento, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Cesena vs Benevento?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cesena's recent record stands at 1W 2D 0L from 3 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Cesena, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Benevento, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 2L across 3 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Benevento, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Cesena by 1.34 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Benevento heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Cesena are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Benevento are on 0.67 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cesena have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Benevento in 67%.
Last 3 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cesena
Early Season
Benevento
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cesena and Benevento in coming into this match?
Cesena have gone 1W 2D 0L in their last 3 games (1.67 PPG), while Benevento have gone 0W 1D 2L in their last 3 (0.33 PPG).
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cesena are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 67% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Benevento see a goal before the break in 33% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Cesena at 100%, Benevento at 67%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Cesena and 33% for Benevento.
On the defensive side: Benevento in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cesena home games / Benevento away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cesena play Benevento?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Cesena's games and 67% of Benevento's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cesena vs Benevento usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Cesena's recent games and 33% of Benevento's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cesena and Benevento tend to score early?
Cesena have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Benevento in 33% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.