Carrarese 0-0 Reggiana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Carrarese at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Carrarese vs Reggiana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Reggiana travel to Stadio dei Marmi to take on Carrarese. The game is scheduled for Saturday 22 November 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Carrarese — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B outings this season, averaging 1.10 points per game. Last five: D W L L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Carrarese, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Carrarese's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Stadio dei Marmi this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Carrarese are significantly better at Stadio dei Marmi than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Reggiana stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Reggiana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Reggiana away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Carrarese 1.10 PPG, Reggiana 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Carrarese, 0 for Reggiana and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Feb 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Carrarese in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Reggiana in-play tendencies (50 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Carrarese 50% versus Reggiana 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Carrarese 46% | Reggiana 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Carrarese 1.97 xG and Reggiana 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Carrarese attack 1.051 / defence 1.148 | Reggiana attack 1.160 / defence 1.377. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.079. Reggiana bring a strong defensive rating of 1.377 — this is suppressing Carrarese's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 50 Carrarese games / 50 Reggiana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Carrarese 48% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 26%. Fair-value odds: Carrarese 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Reggiana 3.85. Carrarese hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.41. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.41 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.97 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Carrarese at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Carrarese offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.41 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 66% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Carrarese 50% | Reggiana 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Carrarese vs Reggiana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio dei Marmi • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Nov 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Carrarese 48% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 68% | xG Carrarese 1.97 / Reggiana 1.44 • Poisson strength factors: Carrarese attack 1.051 / def 1.148 | Reggiana attack 1.160 / def 1.377 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.079 • Poisson stance: Carrarese (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Carrarese xG
Expected Goals
1.44
Reggiana xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Carrarese vs Reggiana kick off?
Carrarese vs Reggiana kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 22 November 2025 at Stadio dei Marmi.
What was the final score in Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Carrarese 0 - 0 Reggiana.
Where is Carrarese vs Reggiana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio dei Marmi.
What competition is Carrarese vs Reggiana part of?
Carrarese vs Reggiana is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Our statistical model gives Carrarese a 48% chance of winning, Reggiana a 26% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Carrarese the favourite.
Will both teams score in Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Carrarese and Reggiana will score (BTTS).
Will Carrarese vs Reggiana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Reggiana?
Record (2 meetings): Carrarese 0W | Draws 2 | Reggiana 0W.
What form are Carrarese and Reggiana in?
Carrarese (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-L-L-D. Reggiana (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Carrarese's attack rating (1.05) and Reggiana's defence rating (1.38), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Reggiana's attack versus Carrarese's defence, projects 1.44 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 50/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 10.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (6.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Carrarese Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.86
26%
3.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
1 – 2
6.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Carrarese xG
Total xG
3.41
1.44
Reggiana xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
3.84
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
26%
Over 4.5
3.85
74%
Under 4.5
1.35
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.10
Clean Sheet
24%
4.21
14%
7.20
Win to Nil
11%
8.76
4%
27.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.4 | 9.2 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 3.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Carrarese and Reggiana expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Carrarese and 1.44 for Reggiana, a combined total of 3.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Carrarese vs Reggiana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Carrarese have picked up 1.20 PPG on a 14W 18D 18L record — D-W-L-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Carrarese is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Reggiana's form line: 15W 15D 20L from 50 games, 1.20 PPG, last five W-L-W-L-D. The sample for Reggiana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Carrarese on 1.20 PPG, Reggiana on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Carrarese have posted 1.72 PPG from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.20 PPG overall — Carrarese are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Reggiana have gone 6W 6D 13L from 25 away games — 0.96 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Carrarese come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Carrarese are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Reggiana are on 1.20 scored and 1.40 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Reggiana in 60%.
Last 50 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Carrarese
Blended
Reggiana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Carrarese and Reggiana in coming into this match?
Carrarese have gone 14W 18D 18L in their last 50 games (1.20 PPG), while Reggiana have gone 15W 15D 20L in their last 50 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Carrarese at home or Reggiana away?
Carrarese's home record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Carrarese at home: 1.72 PPG; Reggiana away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Carrarese or Reggiana been keeping clean sheets recently?
Carrarese have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Reggiana in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Carrarese's record when hosting Reggiana specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Carrarese
3
Draws
1
Reggiana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Carrarese and Reggiana?
From 4 meetings on record, Carrarese have won 0, Reggiana have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Carrarese and Reggiana last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Reggiana 2-0 Carrarese.
Who has won more matches between Carrarese and Reggiana?
Reggiana have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Carrarese see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Reggiana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Carrarese 36%, Reggiana 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Carrarese) and 52% (Reggiana).
On the defensive side: Carrarese keep a clean sheet in 48% of their matches; Carrarese have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Carrarese home games / Reggiana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Carrarese play Reggiana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Carrarese's recent matches and 64% of Reggiana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Carrarese vs Reggiana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Carrarese's recent games and 52% of Reggiana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Carrarese and Reggiana tend to score early?
Carrarese have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Reggiana in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Carrarese's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio dei Marmi, Regular Season - 13, as Carrarese and Reggiana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Carrarese 1.97 xG and Reggiana 1.44 xG, a combined 3.41. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Carrarese fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Reggiana landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Carrarese attack 1.05 / defence 1.15 against Reggiana attack 1.16 / defence 1.38, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Carrarese 48% | Draw 26% | Reggiana 26%, with Carrarese to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 66%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 88% and missed. Over 3.5 was 44% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Carrarese 46%, Reggiana 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Carrarese's trading profile (50 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Reggiana's trading profile (50 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Carrarese 1.20 PPG, Reggiana 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Carrarese (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.04 average — tighter than their form line. Reggiana (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.64 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.