Brescia 0-0 Salernitana – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Salernitana fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Mario Rigamonti plays host to Brescia versus Salernitana in Serie B, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off: Friday 7 February 2025 at 19:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Brescia have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 1W 7D 2L. Last five: D D D L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Brescia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Brescia's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Salernitana (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Serie B outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Salernitana, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Salernitana away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.00 for Brescia, 1.10 for Salernitana — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Brescia 0W, Salernitana 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Dec 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Brescia — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Salernitana — key trading statistics (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 58% versus Salernitana 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 39% | Salernitana 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.61 xG and Salernitana 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.146 / defence 1.346 | Salernitana attack 0.585 / defence 1.127. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.108. Data: 62 Brescia games / 24 Salernitana games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 53% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 18%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 1.89 | Draw 3.45 | Salernitana 5.56. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Brescia as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Brescia if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.48 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Brescia 80% | Salernitana 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Salernitana | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Friday 7 Feb 2025, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 53% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 48% | xG Brescia 1.61 / Salernitana 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.146 / def 1.346 | Salernitana attack 0.585 / def 1.127 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Brescia (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Salernitana xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Salernitana kick off?
Brescia vs Salernitana kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 7 February 2025 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Salernitana?
Brescia 0 - 0 Salernitana.
Where is Brescia vs Salernitana being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Salernitana part of?
Brescia vs Salernitana is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Salernitana?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 53% chance of winning, Salernitana a 18% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Salernitana?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Brescia and Salernitana will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Salernitana have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Salernitana?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 1 | Salernitana 0W.
What form are Brescia and Salernitana in?
Brescia (all comps): 1W-7D-2L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-D-L-W. Salernitana (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Brescia's attacking strength (1.15x league average) is weighed against Salernitana's defensive record (1.13x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. Flip it around — Salernitana's attack (0.58x) against Brescia's defence (1.35x) — and the away total comes out at 0.87.
These ratings are built from 62/24 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.9%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
53%
1.89
29%
3.48
18%
5.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.48
0.87
Salernitana xG
1.89
53%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
5.41
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
20%
4.99
Win to Nil
22%
4.53
4%
27.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 7.3 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.5 | 11.7 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.4 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.8 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Salernitana?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Brescia and Salernitana expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Brescia and 0.87 for Salernitana, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Salernitana?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Brescia come into this having played 62 games, going 17W 25D 20L for 1.23 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-W. The sample for Brescia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Salernitana sit at 0.66 PPG from 62 outings (8W 17D 37L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Salernitana is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Brescia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Salernitana — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Brescia's home form reads 9W 13D 8L across 30 games on their own ground, a 1.33 PPG return.
Away from home, Salernitana have taken 0.50 points per game from 30 outings (2W 9D 19L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Brescia are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Salernitana are on 0.89 scored and 1.84 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Salernitana
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Salernitana in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 17W 25D 20L in their last 62 games (1.23 PPG), while Salernitana have gone 8W 17D 37L in their last 62 (0.66 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Salernitana away?
Brescia's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.33 PPG; Salernitana away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 February 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
2
Draws
0
Salernitana
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Salernitana?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Salernitana have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Salernitana last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2025, when Brescia 0-0 Salernitana.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Salernitana are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 57%, Salernitana 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Brescia) and 50% (Salernitana).
On the defensive side: Brescia have failed to score in 30% of games; Salernitana in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Salernitana away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Salernitana?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 57% of Brescia's recent matches and 43% of Salernitana's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Brescia vs Salernitana usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Brescia's recent games and 50% of Salernitana's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Salernitana tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Salernitana in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Brescia's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 25, as Brescia and Salernitana drew 0-0 in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.61 xG and Salernitana 0.87 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Brescia fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Salernitana landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.15 / defence 1.35 against Salernitana attack 0.58 / defence 1.13, drawn from 62/24 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 53% | Draw 29% | Salernitana 18%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 39%, Salernitana 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Salernitana's trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Brescia arrived the stronger side — 1.23 PPG against 0.66. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Brescia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line. Salernitana (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.97 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.