Brescia 2-3 Cosenza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Brescia at 36% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Brescia vs Cosenza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Brescia welcome Cosenza to Stadio Mario Rigamonti in Serie B (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Brescia stand at 4W 2D 4L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Brescia have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Cosenza have recorded 2W 6D 2L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Cosenza's form when playing away from home: 3W 5D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Brescia) versus 1.20 (Cosenza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
Brescia hold a clear advantage across the 8 H2H matches in our data, with 4 wins compared to 1 for Cosenza and 3 draws.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Apr 2024, ended Brescia 2–1 Cosenza — a Brescia win.
The head-to-head data gives Brescia an edge — 4 wins from 8 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cosenza in-play tendencies (last 50 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 8 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 54% versus Cosenza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Brescia 36% | Cosenza 36%). Note also that Cosenza surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Brescia recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 35% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.34 xG and Cosenza 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 1.292 / defence 1.229 | Cosenza attack 0.977 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.159 / away 1.058. Brescia carry an above-average attack rating of 1.292 — their 1.34 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Brescia's defence rating of 1.229 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Cosenza's projected output up. Data: built from Brescia's last 50 games and Cosenza's last 50.
Result probabilities: Brescia 36% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 32%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.79 | Draw 3.15 | Cosenza 3.09. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 56% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 56% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Brescia 4 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.61 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Brescia 50% (last 10 home games) | Cosenza 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Cosenza | Competition: Serie B, matchday 13 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 9 November 2024 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 36% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 56% (No 44%) | xG Brescia 1.34 / Cosenza 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 1.292 / def 1.229 | Cosenza attack 0.977 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.159 / away 1.058 • Poisson stance: Brescia (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Cosenza xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Brescia vs Cosenza FAQs
What time does Brescia vs Cosenza kick off?
Brescia vs Cosenza kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Cosenza?
Brescia 2 - 3 Cosenza.
Where is Brescia vs Cosenza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Cosenza part of?
Brescia vs Cosenza is a Serie B fixture (matchday 13) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 36% chance of winning, Cosenza a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Brescia and Cosenza will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Brescia vs Cosenza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Brescia's attack at 1.29x the league average against Cosenza's defence at 0.90x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cosenza's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Brescia's last 50 games and Cosenza's last 50 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
36%
2.79
32%
3.15
32%
3.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.61
1.27
Cosenza xG
2.79
36%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
3.09
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
10%
9.96
8%
11.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.3 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Brescia vs Cosenza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Cosenza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Brescia and Cosenza expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Brescia and 1.27 for Cosenza, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Cosenza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 50 outings, Brescia have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 16W 17D 17L record — D-L-L-D-W across the most recent five.
Cosenza's form line: 14W 20D 16L from 50 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-D-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.30 PPG, Cosenza on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Brescia have posted 1.50 PPG from their last 24 home games (9W 9D 6L).
On the road, Cosenza have gone 7W 10D 7L from their last 24 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Cosenza are on 1.14 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 50 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
Brescia (Home) vs Cosenza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Brescia
Blended
Cosenza
Blended
❓ Brescia vs Cosenza Form FAQs
What form are Brescia and Cosenza in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 16W 17D 17L in their last 50 games (1.30 PPG), while Cosenza have gone 14W 20D 16L in their last 50 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Cosenza away?
Brescia's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.50 PPG; Cosenza away: 1.29 PPG.
Have Brescia or Cosenza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Brescia have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cosenza in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from August 2021. All of them came in Serie B. The most recent in our data was on 12 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 27 Aug 2021, when Brescia won Brescia 5-1 Cosenza.
Brescia's record when hosting Cosenza specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Brescia
4
Draws
2
Cosenza
Recent Meetings
❓ Brescia vs Cosenza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Cosenza?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Brescia have won 4, Cosenza have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Cosenza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 April 2025: Cosenza 1-1 Brescia.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Cosenza?
Brescia have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Cosenza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 38% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Brescia 50%, Cosenza 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 38% for Brescia and 21% for Cosenza.
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Cosenza in 33%; Brescia have failed to score in 33% of games; Cosenza in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Cosenza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Brescia vs Cosenza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Brescia and Cosenza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Brescia's recent matches and 42% of Cosenza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Brescia and Cosenza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Brescia's recent games and 21% of Cosenza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Cosenza matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 58% of Brescia's recent matches and 62% of Cosenza's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cosenza defy the odds to beat Brescia 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cosenza beat Brescia 2-3 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.34 xG and Cosenza 1.27 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Cosenza outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 1.29 / defence 1.23 against Cosenza attack 0.98 / defence 0.90, drawn from 50/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 36% | Draw 32% | Cosenza 32%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cosenza win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 36%, Cosenza 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Cosenza's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.30 PPG, Cosenza 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cosenza win broke the near-deadlock. Brescia (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.08 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Cosenza (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.96 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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