Juve Stabia 0-3 Spezia – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Spezia at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Juve Stabia vs Spezia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juve Stabia and Spezia meet at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti in Serie B, Regular Season - 13. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 10 November 2024 at 14:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Juve Stabia have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie B outings this season: 3W 4D 3L. Last five: W L D D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Juve Stabia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juve Stabia's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 2L across 5 games at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 2 home clean sheets from 5 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Spezia's overall Serie B record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Spezia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Spezia away from home this season: 1W 8D 1L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Spezia arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Juve Stabia half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 0% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
Spezia half-time and goal-timing data (12 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 25% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juve Stabia 50% versus Spezia 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juve Stabia 50% | Spezia 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juve Stabia 0.90 xG and Spezia 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juve Stabia attack 1.018 / defence 1.209 | Spezia attack 0.920 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.163 / away 1.032. Spezia's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 12 Juve Stabia games / 50 Spezia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juve Stabia 26% | Draw 35% | Spezia 39%. Fair-value odds: Juve Stabia 3.85 | Draw 2.86 | Spezia 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.05. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.05 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Spezia as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Spezia if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.05 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 34% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Juve Stabia 60% | Spezia 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juve Stabia vs Spezia | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Nov 2024, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juve Stabia 26% | Draw 35% | Spezia 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 43% | xG Juve Stabia 0.90 / Spezia 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Juve Stabia attack 1.018 / def 1.209 | Spezia attack 0.920 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.163 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Spezia (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Juve Stabia xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Spezia xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juve Stabia vs Spezia kick off?
Juve Stabia vs Spezia kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What was the final score in Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Juve Stabia 0 - 3 Spezia.
Where is Juve Stabia vs Spezia being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti.
What competition is Juve Stabia vs Spezia part of?
Juve Stabia vs Spezia is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Our statistical model gives Juve Stabia a 26% chance of winning, Spezia a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Spezia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Juve Stabia and Spezia will score (BTTS).
Will Juve Stabia vs Spezia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Spezia?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Juve Stabia and Spezia in?
Juve Stabia (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-D-D. Spezia (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-D-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Juve Stabia's attack rating (1.02) and Spezia's defence rating (0.76), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Spezia's attack (0.92x) against Juve Stabia's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.15.
These ratings are built from 12/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 0-1 (13.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Spezia Win
26%
3.81
35%
2.88
39%
2.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Juve Stabia xG
Total xG
2.05
1.15
Spezia xG
3.81
26%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
2.57
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
41%
2.46
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
16%
6.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.9 | 14.8 | 8.5 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Juve Stabia and Spezia expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Juve Stabia and 1.15 for Spezia, a combined total of 2.05.
How confident is the prediction model for Juve Stabia vs Spezia?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Juve Stabia come into this having played 12 games, going 4W 5D 3L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-D. The sample for Juve Stabia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Spezia sit at 2.00 PPG from 12 outings (6W 6D 0L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Spezia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Spezia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Juve Stabia — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Juve Stabia's home form reads 2W 1D 2L across 5 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Spezia have taken 1.40 points per game from 5 outings (1W 4D 0L). That's a step down from their 2.00 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Spezia's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Juve Stabia are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Spezia are on 1.33 scored and 0.67 conceded.
Defensively: Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Spezia in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juve Stabia
Blended
Spezia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juve Stabia and Spezia in coming into this match?
Juve Stabia have gone 4W 5D 3L in their last 12 games (1.42 PPG), while Spezia have gone 6W 6D 0L in their last 12 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juve Stabia at home or Spezia away?
Juve Stabia's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juve Stabia at home: 1.40 PPG; Spezia away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Juve Stabia or Spezia been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juve Stabia have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Spezia in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. They last met on 21 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Juve Stabia have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Spezia won 0-3 on 10 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juve Stabia have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Spezia — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Juve Stabia
1
Draws
1
Spezia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juve Stabia and Spezia?
From 4 meetings on record, Juve Stabia have won 2, Spezia have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Juve Stabia and Spezia last play each other?
They last met on 21 March 2026, when Juve Stabia 3-1 Spezia.
Who has won more matches between Juve Stabia and Spezia?
Juve Stabia have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Juve Stabia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Spezia see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juve Stabia 60%, Spezia 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 60% for Juve Stabia and 0% for Spezia.
On the defensive side: Juve Stabia keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Spezia in 60%; Spezia in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juve Stabia home games / Spezia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juve Stabia play Spezia?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Juve Stabia's recent matches and 40% of Spezia's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juve Stabia vs Spezia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Juve Stabia's recent games and 0% of Spezia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juve Stabia and Spezia tend to score early?
Juve Stabia have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Spezia in 40% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Spezia run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Juve Stabia.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Spezia beat Juve Stabia 0-3 at Stadio Comunale Romeo Menti, Regular Season - 13, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juve Stabia 0.90 xG and Spezia 1.15 xG, a combined 2.05. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Juve Stabia fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Spezia outscored their 1.15 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juve Stabia attack 1.02 / defence 1.21 against Spezia attack 0.92 / defence 0.76, drawn from 12/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juve Stabia 26% | Draw 35% | Spezia 39%, with Spezia to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juve Stabia 50%, Spezia 33%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juve Stabia's trading profile (12 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Spezia's trading profile (12 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Spezia arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.42. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Juve Stabia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Spezia (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.