Brescia 1-2 Mantova – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Brescia at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Brescia vs Mantova fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 32 sees Mantova travel to Stadio Mario Rigamonti to take on Brescia. The game is scheduled for Saturday 5 April 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Brescia stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Brescia at Stadio Mario Rigamonti this season: 0W 8D 2L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Serie B games this season, Mantova have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Mantova's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Brescia 1.00 PPG, Mantova 0.90 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Brescia, 0 for Mantova and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Oct 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Brescia in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Mantova in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 73% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Brescia 55% versus Mantova 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Brescia 39% | Mantova 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Brescia 1.61 xG and Mantova 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Brescia attack 0.909 / defence 1.093 | Mantova attack 0.986 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.140. Mantova bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Brescia's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Brescia games / 31 Mantova games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Brescia 45% | Draw 27% | Mantova 28%. Fair-value odds: Brescia 2.22 | Draw 3.70 | Mantova 3.57. Brescia hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Brescia are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Brescia offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Brescia 70% | Mantova 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Brescia vs Mantova | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 32 | Venue: Stadio Mario Rigamonti • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Apr 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Brescia 45% | Draw 27% | Mantova 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 58% | xG Brescia 1.61 / Mantova 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Brescia attack 0.909 / def 1.093 | Mantova attack 0.986 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.140 • Poisson stance: Brescia (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Brescia xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Mantova xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brescia vs Mantova kick off?
Brescia vs Mantova kicked off at 14:00 on Saturday 5 April 2025 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What was the final score in Brescia vs Mantova?
Brescia 1 - 2 Mantova.
Where is Brescia vs Mantova being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Mario Rigamonti.
What competition is Brescia vs Mantova part of?
Brescia vs Mantova is a Regular Season - 32 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Brescia vs Mantova?
Our statistical model gives Brescia a 45% chance of winning, Mantova a 28% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Brescia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Brescia vs Mantova?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Brescia and Mantova will score (BTTS).
Will Brescia vs Mantova have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Mantova?
Record (1 meetings): Brescia 0W | Draws 1 | Mantova 0W.
What form are Brescia and Mantova in?
Brescia (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Mantova (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Brescia's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Mantova's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.61. The same calculation in reverse, Mantova's attack versus Brescia's defence, projects 1.23 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Brescia Win
45%
2.23
27%
3.66
28%
3.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Brescia xG
Total xG
2.84
1.23
Mantova xG
2.23
45%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.60
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
29%
3.41
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
13%
7.60
6%
18.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 11.6 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 5.0 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Brescia vs Mantova?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Brescia and Mantova expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Brescia and 1.23 for Mantova, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Brescia vs Mantova?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Brescia's recent record stands at 7W 13D 11L from 31 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with D-L-D-L-W in the last five.
Mantova, meanwhile, have gone 7W 12D 12L across 31 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-L-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Brescia on 1.10 PPG, Mantova on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Brescia have managed 3W 8D 4L from 15 games — 1.13 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Mantova's away record stands at 1W 6D 8L across 15 trips, a 0.60 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mantova's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Brescia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Brescia are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Mantova are on 1.16 scored and 1.48 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Brescia
Current Season
Mantova
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Brescia and Mantova in coming into this match?
Brescia have gone 7W 13D 11L in their last 31 games (1.10 PPG), while Mantova have gone 7W 12D 12L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Brescia at home or Mantova away?
Brescia's home record (1.13 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Brescia at home: 1.13 PPG; Mantova away: 0.60 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 5 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Brescia
1
Draws
1
Mantova
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Brescia and Mantova?
From 2 meetings on record, Brescia have won 0, Mantova have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Brescia and Mantova last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2025, when Brescia 1-2 Mantova.
Who has won more matches between Brescia and Mantova?
Mantova have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Brescia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Mantova are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Brescia at 60%, Mantova at 73%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Brescia) and 60% (Mantova).
On the defensive side: Brescia keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Brescia have failed to score in 27% of games; Mantova in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Brescia home games / Mantova away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Brescia play Mantova?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 60% of Brescia's games and 73% of Mantova's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Brescia vs Mantova usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Brescia's recent games and 60% of Mantova's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Brescia and Mantova tend to score early?
Brescia have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Mantova in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Mantova defy the odds to beat Brescia 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Mantova beat Brescia 1-2 at Stadio Mario Rigamonti, Regular Season - 32, in the Serie B. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Brescia 1.61 xG and Mantova 1.23 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Brescia attack 0.91 / defence 1.09 against Mantova attack 0.99 / defence 1.42, drawn from 69/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Brescia 45% | Draw 27% | Mantova 28%, with Brescia to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Mantova win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Brescia 39%, Mantova 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Brescia's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Mantova's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Brescia 1.10 PPG, Mantova 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Mantova win broke the near-deadlock. Mantova (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.13 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.