Bari 1-0 Pisa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pisa at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bari vs Pisa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie B encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Pisa travel to Stadio Comunale San Nicola to take on Bari. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bari stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie B matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Bari have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bari are significantly better at Stadio Comunale San Nicola than their overall form suggests.
Pisa — All Games: 6W 1D 3L from 10 Serie B fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Pisa have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Pisa are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Bari, 1 for Pisa and 3 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2024, ended 0–2 with Pisa winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Bari in-play tendencies (73 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games).
Pisa in-play tendencies (73 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Bari 60% and Pisa 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bari 37% | Pisa 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bari 1.02 xG and Pisa 1.32 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bari attack 0.963 / defence 0.983 | Pisa attack 1.164 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.156. Data: 73 Bari games / 73 Pisa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bari 28% | Draw 30% | Pisa 42%. Fair-value odds: Bari 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Pisa 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Pisa as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Pisa offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Bari 60% | Pisa 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bari vs Pisa | Competition: Serie B, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Stadio Comunale San Nicola • Kick-off: Sunday 4 May 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bari 28% | Draw 30% | Pisa 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Bari 1.02 / Pisa 1.32 • Poisson strength factors: Bari attack 0.963 / def 0.983 | Pisa attack 1.164 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.156 • Poisson stance: Pisa (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Bari xG
Expected Goals
1.32
Pisa xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bari vs Pisa kick off?
Bari vs Pisa kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 4 May 2025 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What was the final score in Bari vs Pisa?
Bari 1 - 0 Pisa.
Where is Bari vs Pisa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Comunale San Nicola.
What competition is Bari vs Pisa part of?
Bari vs Pisa is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie B (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bari vs Pisa?
Our statistical model gives Bari a 28% chance of winning, Pisa a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Pisa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bari vs Pisa?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Bari and Pisa will score (BTTS).
Will Bari vs Pisa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pisa?
Record (5 meetings): Bari 1W | Draws 3 | Pisa 1W.
What form are Bari and Pisa in?
Bari (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-L-L. Pisa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bari's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Pisa's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Pisa's attack versus Bari's defence, projects 1.32 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 73/73 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.6%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 0-1 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pisa Win
28%
3.62
30%
3.32
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Bari xG
Total xG
2.34
1.32
Pisa xG
3.62
28%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
27%
3.75
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
7%
13.60
15%
6.57
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 13.0 | 8.6 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.6 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bari vs Pisa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Bari and Pisa expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Bari and 1.32 for Pisa, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Bari vs Pisa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 73 outings, Bari have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 17W 34D 22L record — L-D-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Pisa's form line: 32W 20D 21L from 73 games, 1.59 PPG, last five W-L-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Pisa are the form team by 0.43 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bari.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bari have posted 1.46 PPG from 37 outings (12W 18D 7L).
On the road, Pisa have gone 14W 9D 14L from 37 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Bari are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Pisa are on 1.48 scored and 1.18 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bari have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Pisa in 63%.
Last 73 Results — Serie B
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bari
Current Season
Pisa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bari and Pisa in coming into this match?
Bari have gone 17W 34D 22L in their last 73 games (1.16 PPG), while Pisa have gone 32W 20D 21L in their last 73 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bari at home or Pisa away?
Bari's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bari at home: 1.46 PPG; Pisa away: 1.38 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bari and Pisa runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie B. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bari's record when hosting Pisa specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Bari
3
Draws
1
Pisa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bari and Pisa?
From 6 meetings on record, Bari have won 2, Pisa have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bari and Pisa last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2025, when Bari 1-0 Pisa.
Who has won more matches between Bari and Pisa?
Bari have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Pisa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bari 65%, Pisa 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bari) and 46% (Pisa).
On the defensive side: Pisa in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bari home games / Pisa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bari play Pisa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Bari's games and 57% of Pisa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bari vs Pisa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bari's recent games and 46% of Pisa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bari and Pisa tend to score early?
Bari have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Pisa in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bari defy the odds to beat Pisa 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bari beat Pisa 1-0 at Stadio Comunale San Nicola, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie B. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bari 1.02 xG and Pisa 1.32 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Pisa landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bari attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Pisa attack 1.16 / defence 0.82, drawn from 73/73 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bari 28% | Draw 30% | Pisa 42%, with Pisa to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Bari win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bari 37%, Pisa 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bari's trading profile (73 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Pisa's trading profile (73 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Pisa arrived the stronger side — 1.59 PPG against 1.16. Form was overturned, with Bari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.05 average — tighter than their form line. Pisa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.